Closing spread
DAL -16
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.172EPA / play-0.018
- 38.0%Success rate41.9%
- -0.150EPA / dropback-0.021
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.015
- 5.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- -3.29CPOE+3.06
- 35.3%Third-down rate43.2%
- 45.7%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 0.93Points / drive1.67
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. DAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 14:46 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 13:06 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 11:27 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q1 6:00 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q1 3:09 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| CIN | Q2 12:12 | 7 | 25 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| DAL | Q2 8:15 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CIN | Q2 4:59 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–17 |
| DAL | Q2 2:38 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| CIN | Q2 1:42 | 6 | 26 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| DAL | Q2 0:34 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 6–17 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–17 |
| CIN | Q3 13:17 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| DAL | Q3 7:59 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 13–17 |
| CIN | Q3 5:14 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–17 |
| DAL | Q3 3:10 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 13–17 |
| CIN | Q3 0:38 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 16–17 |
| DAL | Q4 14:02 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 16–17 |
| CIN | Q4 14:02 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 16–17 |
| DAL | Q4 12:36 | 2 | 59 | Touchdown | 16–24 |
| CIN | Q4 11:46 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 22–24 |
| DAL | Q4 7:39 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 22–31 |
| CIN | Q4 1:52 | 7 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 22–31 |
| DAL | Q4 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/39 | 217 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Perry | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 14/23 | 176 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 9 | 96 | 10.7 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 23 | 84 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.24