2020 · Week 14

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Andy Dalton

30·7

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Brandon Allen

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

44

Model margin

-2.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBengals
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.041
  • 46.1%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.122
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -1.42CPOE+0.03
  • 41.5%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.87
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W14CIN @ DAL27–20CIN
2022 · W2CIN @ DAL17–20DAL
2016 · W5CIN @ DAL14–28DAL
2012 · W14DAL @ CIN20–19DAL
2008 · W5CIN @ DAL22–31DAL
2004 · W9DAL @ CIN3–26CIN
2000 · W11CIN @ DAL6–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:00211Turnover0–0
DALQ1 14:22616Field goal3–0
CINQ1 11:02853Opp touchdown10–0
CINQ1 6:151455Turnover10–0
DALQ2 14:501593Touchdown17–0
CINQ2 6:381677Touchdown17–7
DALQ2 0:0800End of half17–7
DALQ3 15:00741Field goal20–7
CINQ3 11:35416Punt20–7
DALQ3 9:21526Punt20–7
CINQ3 5:55617Punt20–7
DALQ3 2:42633Punt20–7
CINQ4 14:471580Turnover on downs20–7
DALQ4 7:23748Field goal23–7
CINQ4 5:124-9Turnover on downs23–7
DALQ4 3:37416Touchdown30–7
CINQ4 1:5539End of half30–7

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton16/2318520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott12484.00
Tony Pollard11393.50
CeeDee Lamb11515.00
Andy Dalton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper45511
CeeDee Lamb22460
Dalton Schultz33340
Michael Gallup26230
Blake Bell11110
Ezekiel Elliott23110
Tony Pollard2291

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Allen27/3621710
Ryan Finley1/2500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trayveon Williams12494.10
Samaje Perine10323.20
Brandon Allen4123.00
Giovani Bernard382.70
Alex Erickson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green67621
Tee Higgins58490
Tyler Boyd59430
Drew Sample34210
Giovani Bernard33150
Trayveon Williams33140
Alex Erickson1190
Samaje Perine2290
Mike Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.5%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.24
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin-2.83