Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
44
Model margin
-2.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.041
- 46.1%Success rate44.2%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.122
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.5%
- -1.42CPOE+0.03
- 41.5%Third-down rate37.1%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.87Points / drive1.87
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/23 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 27/36 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Finley | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trayveon Williams | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.24
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin-2.83