Closing spread
CIN -5
Total
51
Model margin
-1.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play-0.089
- 48.0%Success rate41.4%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.128
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- +6.81CPOE-4.87
- 47.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.50Points / drive1.68
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. DAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 33/44 | 369 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 14 | 18 | 177 | 2 |
| Chase Brown | 6 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 16/31 | 183 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 18 | 131 | 7.3 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.59