2024 · Week 14

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

27·20

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

CIN -5

Total

51

Model margin

-1.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.107EPA / play-0.089
  • 48.0%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.067
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.128
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +6.81CPOE-4.87
  • 47.3%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.50Points / drive1.68
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. DAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W2CIN @ DAL17–20DAL
2020 · W14DAL @ CIN30–7DAL
2016 · W5CIN @ DAL14–28DAL
2012 · W14DAL @ CIN20–19DAL
2008 · W5CIN @ DAL22–31DAL
2004 · W9DAL @ CIN3–26CIN
2000 · W11CIN @ DAL6–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–DAL
CINQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:24960Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 8:551375Touchdown7–7
DALQ1 2:45658Turnover7–7
CINQ2 14:56962Turnover on downs7–7
DALQ2 9:51639Field goal7–10
CINQ2 6:23664Touchdown14–10
DALQ2 3:303-5Punt14–10
CINQ2 1:50636Field goal17–10
DALQ2 0:3035Punt17–10
CINQ2 0:0300End of half17–10
DALQ3 15:00965Touchdown17–17
CINQ3 10:32837Turnover17–17
DALQ3 6:501269Field goal17–20
CINQ4 14:55858Field goal20–20
DALQ4 10:243-1Punt20–20
CINQ4 9:33518Punt20–20
DALQ4 6:31414Punt20–20
CINQ4 5:31824Punt20–20
CINQ4 1:53357Touchdown27–20
DALQ4 1:01518Turnover on downs27–20
CINQ4 0:1900End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow33/4436931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown14584.10
Ja'Marr Chase11414.00
Khalil Herbert242.00
Joe Burrow2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase14181772
Chase Brown68651
Andrei Iosivas45410
Mike Gesicki33240
Tee Higgins25230
Tanner Hudson11190
Drew Sample22130
Khalil Herbert1170

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush16/3118321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle181317.30
KaVontae Turpin2157.50
Cooper Rush252.50
Ezekiel Elliott242.00
CeeDee Lamb111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb67931
Jake Ferguson36320
Luke Schoonmaker22220
KaVontae Turpin14160
Rico Dowdle12100
Hunter Luepke1150
Brandin Cooks1331
Ezekiel Elliott1120
Jalen Tolbert0300
Jonathan Mingo0100
Ryan Flournoy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.59