2012 · Week 14

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

20·19

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

+4.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBengals
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.002
  • 47.2%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.019
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.034
  • 7.3%Explosive rate6.6%
  • +3.18CPOE+1.17
  • 43.3%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.71
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W14CIN @ DAL27–20CIN
2022 · W2CIN @ DAL17–20DAL
2020 · W14DAL @ CIN30–7DAL
2016 · W5CIN @ DAL14–28DAL
2008 · W5CIN @ DAL22–31DAL
2004 · W9DAL @ CIN3–26CIN
2000 · W11CIN @ DAL6–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CIN
DALQ1 15:001161Field goal3–0
CINQ1 8:36570Touchdown3–7
DALQ1 6:4134Punt3–7
CINQ1 5:37740Field goal3–10
DALQ1 1:39616Punt3–10
CINQ2 13:49420Turnover3–10
DALQ2 12:00427Touchdown10–10
CINQ2 10:331171Field goal10–13
DALQ2 3:2493Turnover10–13
CINQ2 0:3800End of half10–13
CINQ3 15:001266Field goal10–16
DALQ3 9:2235Punt10–16
CINQ3 7:5463Field goal10–19
DALQ3 6:4574Punt10–19
CINQ3 4:38517Punt10–19
DALQ3 2:37840Punt10–19
CINQ4 12:28543Punt10–19
DALQ4 9:47978Touchdown17–19
CINQ4 6:3556Punt17–19
DALQ4 3:441250Field goal20–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo25/4326811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray21532.51
Felix Jones273.50
Dez Bryant1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten44620
Dez Bryant46501
Miles Austin410460
Dwayne Harris38330
Kevin Ogletree23280
DeMarco Murray46220
Lance Dunbar1160
James Hanna1230

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/3320611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis12897.40
Marvin Jones13737.00
Brian Leonard6203.30
Andy Dalton100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones34450
Andrew Hawkins68441
A.J. Green38440
Jermaine Gresham47430
Orson Charles11170
BenJarvus Green-Ellis34130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.75