Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.002
- 47.2%Success rate41.6%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.034
- 7.3%Explosive rate6.6%
- +3.18CPOE+1.17
- 43.3%Third-down rate34.3%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.79Points / drive1.71
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 25/43 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 4 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/33 | 206 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 6 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.75