Closing spread
PK
Total
44
Model margin
+3.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.059
- 42.6%Success rate43.2%
- -0.005EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.114
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- 36.3%Third-down rate40.8%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
- 1.44Points / drive1.40
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 18/30 | 207 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ReShard Lee | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/32 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 26 | 95 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cliff Russell | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.59