2022 · Week 2

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

17·20

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

Total

42

Model margin

-1.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.031
  • 47.8%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.031
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +2.74CPOE-1.95
  • 47.3%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 2.27Points / drive2.26
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. DAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W14CIN @ DAL27–20CIN
2020 · W14DAL @ CIN30–7DAL
2016 · W5CIN @ DAL14–28DAL
2012 · W14DAL @ CIN20–19DAL
2008 · W5CIN @ DAL22–31DAL
2004 · W9DAL @ CIN3–26CIN
2000 · W11CIN @ DAL6–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–DAL
DALQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 8:35840Field goal3–7
DALQ1 3:05680Touchdown3–14
CINQ1 0:1736Punt3–14
DALQ2 14:05618Punt3–14
CINQ2 10:27933Punt3–14
DALQ2 5:31741Punt3–14
CINQ2 2:1256Punt3–14
DALQ2 0:51513Field goal3–17
CINQ2 0:0900End of half3–17
CINQ3 15:001148Field goal6–17
DALQ3 9:4133Punt6–17
CINQ3 8:00631Field goal9–17
DALQ3 4:05939Turnover9–17
CINQ3 1:0535Punt9–17
DALQ4 14:49415Punt9–17
CINQ4 12:391978Touchdown17–17
DALQ4 3:45420Punt17–17
CINQ4 2:1338Punt17–17
DALQ4 0:57433Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow24/3619910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon19573.00
Joe Burrow4266.50
Ja'Marr Chase144.00
Samaje Perine122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins610711
Ja'Marr Chase59540
Joe Mixon34260
Hayden Hurst57240
Tyler Boyd22170
Samaje Perine1180
Mitchell Wilcox1130
Drew Sample11-40

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush19/3123510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott15533.50
Tony Pollard9434.81
CeeDee Lamb166.00
KaVontae Turpin133.00
Cooper Rush122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Brown55911
CeeDee Lamb711750
Tony Pollard47550
Dalton Schultz24180
Dennis Houston0100
Ezekiel Elliott12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.73