Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
-1.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.031
- 47.8%Success rate45.2%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.031
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.74CPOE-1.95
- 47.3%Third-down rate46.2%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 2.27Points / drive2.26
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. DAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 24/36 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 19/31 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 5 | 5 | 91 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Dennis Houston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.73