Closing spread
DAL -8.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.157EPA / play-0.074
- 34.1%Success rate41.5%
- -0.180EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- 34.8%Third-down rate36.8%
- 34.6%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 0.82Points / drive1.35
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.7%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. DAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 10/25 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 20 | 94 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 4 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 24/37 | 308 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Warren | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 17 | 16 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tim Seder | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Troy Aikman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 8 | 16 | 164 | 1 |
| Wane McGarity | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.97