2000 · Week 11

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Akili Smith

6·23

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 50°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

DAL -8.5

Total

39

Model margin

+3.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.157EPA / play-0.074
  • 34.1%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.180EPA / dropback-0.085
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.061
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 34.8%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 34.6%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.35
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.7%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed+0.022

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. DAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W14CIN @ DAL27–20CIN
2022 · W2CIN @ DAL17–20DAL
2020 · W14DAL @ CIN30–7DAL
2016 · W5CIN @ DAL14–28DAL
2012 · W14DAL @ CIN20–19DAL
2008 · W5CIN @ DAL22–31DAL
2004 · W9DAL @ CIN3–26CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–DAL
CINQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:26873Turnover0–0
CINQ1 9:0154Punt0–0
DALQ1 7:12823Missed field goal0–0
CINQ1 2:561667Field goal3–0
DALQ2 10:55476Touchdown3–7
CINQ2 8:40948Field goal6–7
DALQ2 4:141238Missed field goal6–7
CINQ2 0:4733End of half6–7
DALQ3 15:00954Field goal6–10
CINQ3 9:463-6Turnover6–10
DALQ3 8:59810Touchdown6–17
CINQ3 6:2249Turnover on downs6–17
DALQ3 4:14533Field goal6–20
CINQ3 1:561035Punt6–20
DALQ4 13:34961Field goal6–23
CINQ4 8:4910Turnover6–23
DALQ4 8:2146Missed field goal6–23
CINQ4 7:05824Turnover on downs6–23
DALQ4 4:52831End of half6–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Akili Smith10/256801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon20944.70
Akili Smith5255.00
Brandon Bennett5244.80
Peter Warrick1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peter Warrick49360
Tony McGee24140
Craig Yeast2380
Marco Battaglia1170
Nicolas Luchey1330
Brandon Bennett0200
Damon Griffin0100
Danny Farmer0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman24/3730810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Warren9596.60
Emmitt Smith17160.90
Wane McGarity2157.50
Tim Seder111.01
Troy Aikman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight8161641
Wane McGarity47510
Chris Warren44230
Emmitt Smith11190
Jackie Harris33150
Jason Tucker12140
David LaFleur11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.97