Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play+0.126
- 45.3%Success rate48.6%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.226
- -0.050EPA / rush+0.006
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.98CPOE+4.07
- 38.9%Third-down rate43.8%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.86Points / drive2.52
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. DAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 29/41 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 8 | 11 | 68 | 2 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 18/24 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 134 | 8.9 | 2 |
| Alfred Morris | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 5 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.18