2016 · Week 5

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

14·28

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.052EPA / play+0.126
  • 45.3%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.226
  • -0.050EPA / rush+0.006
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +2.98CPOE+4.07
  • 38.9%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.52
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. DAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W14CIN @ DAL27–20CIN
2022 · W2CIN @ DAL17–20DAL
2020 · W14DAL @ CIN30–7DAL
2012 · W14DAL @ CIN20–19DAL
2008 · W5CIN @ DAL22–31DAL
2004 · W9DAL @ CIN3–26CIN
2000 · W11CIN @ DAL6–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–DAL
DALQ1 15:00764Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 11:09850Punt0–7
DALQ1 6:161494Touchdown0–14
CINQ2 14:431157Punt0–14
DALQ2 7:47880Touchdown0–21
CINQ2 4:0939Punt0–21
DALQ2 2:01527Punt0–21
CINQ2 1:24634Punt0–21
DALQ2 0:0300End of half0–21
CINQ3 15:001035Missed field goal0–27
DALQ3 11:47160Touchdown0–28
CINQ3 11:38929Punt0–28
DALQ3 8:081262Turnover0–28
CINQ3 0:231059Touchdown7–28
DALQ4 10:1036Punt7–28
CINQ4 7:421372Touchdown14–28
DALQ4 2:39314End of half14–28

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton29/4126920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard9505.60
Andy Dalton6345.70
Jeremy Hill4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell811682
A.J. Green48500
Giovani Bernard66460
C.J. Uzomah55430
Tyler Boyd35330
Tyler Kroft33290
Jeremy Hill0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott18/2422710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott151348.92
Alfred Morris6335.50
Lucky Whitehead199.00
Dak Prescott740.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams55700
Cole Beasley44531
Jason Witten35430
Ezekiel Elliott34370
Brice Butler23200
Rod Smith1140
Alfred Morris0100
Geoff Swaim0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.2%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.18