2008 · Week 11

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

10·30

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

NYG -7

Total

39

Model margin

+0.8est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapGiants
  • -0.018EPA / play+0.093
  • 40.6%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.129
  • -0.027EPA / rush+0.050
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -0.33CPOE+0.84
  • 41.3%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.09
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15BAL @ NYG35–14BAL
2022 · W6BAL @ NYG20–24NYG
2020 · W16NYG @ BAL13–27BAL
2016 · W6BAL @ NYG23–27NYG
2012 · W16NYG @ BAL14–33BAL
2004 · W14NYG @ BAL14–37BAL
2000 · playoffsBAL @ NYG34–7BAL

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3316412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Flacco6579.50
Ray Rice8192.40
Willis McGahee9182.00
Mark Clayton11717.00

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning13/2315311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw99610.70
Brandon Jacobs11736.62
Derrick Ward11413.70
Eli Manning2-3-1.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81