Closing spread
NYG -7
Total
39
Model margin
+0.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.093
- 40.6%Success rate47.3%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.027EPA / rush+0.050
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.33CPOE+0.84
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.61Points / drive2.09
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 12:58 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 8:45 | 9 | 35 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 4:26 | 6 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| BAL | Q1 0:59 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 0–13 |
| NYG | Q2 13:54 | 13 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| BAL | Q2 7:14 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| NYG | Q2 4:08 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q2 2:29 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| NYG | Q2 1:51 | 8 | 25 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–20 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q3 11:50 | 13 | 79 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| NYG | Q3 4:26 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 10–20 |
| BAL | Q3 2:13 | 5 | 17 | Opp touchdown | 10–27 |
| BAL | Q3 0:14 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 10–27 |
| NYG | Q4 14:31 | 4 | 78 | Field goal | 10–30 |
| BAL | Q4 12:02 | 14 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 10–30 |
| NYG | Q4 5:22 | 6 | 32 | End of half | 10–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/33 | 164 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/23 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 9 | 96 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Derrick Ward | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81