2020 · Week 16

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

13·27

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -10

Total

43.5

Model margin

+6.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapRavens
  • -0.057EPA / play+0.109
  • 42.1%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.125
  • -0.067EPA / rush+0.093
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -2.04CPOE-0.32
  • 35.1%Third-down rate49.8%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.64
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15BAL @ NYG35–14BAL
2022 · W6BAL @ NYG20–24NYG
2016 · W6BAL @ NYG23–27NYG
2012 · W16NYG @ BAL14–33BAL
2008 · W11BAL @ NYG10–30NYG
2004 · W14NYG @ BAL14–37BAL
2000 · playoffsBAL @ NYG34–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–BAL
BALQ1 15:001382Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 6:48313Punt0–7
BALQ1 5:121065Touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 0:07618Punt0–14
BALQ2 12:511370Field goal0–17
NYGQ2 4:381064Field goal3–17
BALQ2 1:08865Field goal3–20
NYGQ3 15:0037Punt3–20
BALQ3 13:26439Punt3–20
NYGQ3 10:461376Field goal6–20
BALQ3 3:54759Touchdown6–27
NYGQ4 14:551756Touchdown13–27
BALQ4 8:4039Punt13–27
NYGQ4 6:1753Turnover on downs13–27
BALQ4 4:47844Turnover13–27
NYGQ4 1:55732Turnover on downs13–27
BALQ4 0:3700End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones24/4125210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman6274.50
Dion Lewis11515.00
Evan Engram155.00
Alfred Morris341.30
Daniel Jones133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard912771
Evan Engram710650
Dante Pettis23330
Wayne Gallman22260
Darius Slayton28260
C.J. Board12160
Alfred Morris1190
Austin Mack0300

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2618320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards15855.70
Lamar Jackson13806.20
J.K. Dobbins11777.01
Devin Duvernay177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews610760
Gus Edwards22370
Marquise Brown44251
Willie Snead22240
Miles Boykin12130
Dez Bryant1181
J.K. Dobbins0100
Devin Duvernay1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.3%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.17