Closing spread
BAL -10
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.109
- 42.1%Success rate45.2%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.093
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.04CPOE-0.32
- 35.1%Third-down rate49.8%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 1.57Points / drive2.64
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 24/41 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 9 | 12 | 77 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Austin Mack | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/26 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 15 | 85 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 11 | 77 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.46
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.17