2012 · Week 16

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

14·33

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 51°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

48

Model margin

+1.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapRavens
  • +0.086EPA / play+0.025
  • 46.8%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.000EPA / rush-0.043
  • 10.8%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +0.81CPOE-0.27
  • 41.8%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.80
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15BAL @ NYG35–14BAL
2022 · W6BAL @ NYG20–24NYG
2020 · W16NYG @ BAL13–27BAL
2016 · W6BAL @ NYG23–27NYG
2008 · W11BAL @ NYG10–30NYG
2004 · W14NYG @ BAL14–37BAL
2000 · playoffsBAL @ NYG34–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–BAL
NYGQ1 15:0041Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:031473Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:3831Punt0–7
BALQ1 6:34447Touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 4:24577Touchdown7–14
BALQ1 1:30411Punt7–14
NYGQ1 0:03520Punt7–14
BALQ2 12:101183Field goal7–17
NYGQ2 6:05511Punt7–17
BALQ2 3:15776Touchdown7–24
NYGQ2 1:043-1Punt7–24
BALQ2 0:0300End of half7–24
BALQ3 15:0033Punt7–24
NYGQ3 14:0832Punt7–24
BALQ3 13:1519102Field goal7–27
NYGQ3 5:1864Punt7–27
BALQ3 3:051257Field goal7–30
NYGQ4 11:0836Punt7–30
BALQ4 10:21570Field goal7–33
NYGQ4 7:251165Touchdown14–33
BALQ4 3:18215End of half14–33

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning14/2815010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw9394.30
David Wilson3175.71
Eli Manning188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle14430
Domenik Hixon35361
Martellus Bennett47270
Victor Cruz35210
Ahmad Bradshaw1180
Jerrel Jernigan1170
Bear Pascoe0100
Hakeem Nicks0300

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/3630920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Pierce141238.80
Ray Rice241074.50
Anthony Allen177.00
Tyrod Taylor3-3-1.00
Joe Flacco3-10-3.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin77930
Torrey Smith511881
Dennis Pitta45560
Ray Rice67511
Ed Dickson1190
Jacoby Jones1370
Anthony Allen1150
Bernard Pierce0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.85