Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.025
- 46.8%Success rate41.5%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.000EPA / rush-0.043
- 10.8%Explosive rate10.0%
- +0.81CPOE-0.27
- 41.8%Third-down rate37.1%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 2.27Points / drive1.80
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 14/28 | 150 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 1 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/36 | 309 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Pierce | 14 | 123 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 24 | 107 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Allen | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | -10 | -3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 7 | 93 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 11 | 88 | 1 |
| Dennis Pitta | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 6 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Anthony Allen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.85