Closing spread
BAL -10
Total
34
Model margin
+6.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.113
- 43.5%Success rate38.4%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.127
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- 29.5%Third-down rate35.0%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.65Points / drive1.22
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.008EPA / play allowed-0.136
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 6/9 | 127 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4/18 | 27 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Willie Ponder | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 18/34 | 219 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 25 | 104 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| B.J. Sams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.20