2004 · Week 14

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

14·37

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 48°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BAL -10

Total

34

Model margin

+6.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapRavens
  • -0.028EPA / play-0.113
  • 43.5%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback-0.127
  • -0.044EPA / rush-0.096
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 29.5%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.22
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.008EPA / play allowed-0.136

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15BAL @ NYG35–14BAL
2022 · W6BAL @ NYG20–24NYG
2020 · W16NYG @ BAL13–27BAL
2016 · W6BAL @ NYG23–27NYG
2012 · W16NYG @ BAL14–33BAL
2008 · W11BAL @ NYG10–30NYG
2000 · playoffsBAL @ NYG34–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–BAL
NYGQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
BALQ1 14:54627Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 12:0451Turnover0–7
BALQ1 10:5130Field goal0–10
NYGQ1 9:0110Turnover0–10
BALQ1 8:39520Punt0–10
NYGQ1 5:533-2Punt0–10
BALQ1 4:25424Punt0–10
NYGQ1 2:361137Punt0–10
BALQ2 12:15987Touchdown0–17
NYGQ2 7:0533Punt0–17
BALQ2 5:44912Opp touchdown7–17
BALQ2 2:43773Touchdown7–24
NYGQ2 0:2110Turnover7–27
BALQ2 0:0300Field goal7–27
BALQ3 15:00514Punt7–27
NYGQ3 12:1931Punt7–27
BALQ3 10:14627Field goal7–30
NYGQ3 7:5036Punt7–30
BALQ3 6:50523Punt7–30
NYGQ3 4:2623Turnover7–30
BALQ3 3:49414Touchdown7–37
NYGQ3 1:4236Punt7–37
BALQ3 0:413-4Punt7–37
NYGQ4 13:4828Turnover7–37
BALQ4 13:0734Punt7–37
NYGQ4 10:353-5Punt7–37
BALQ4 9:03615Punt7–37
NYGQ4 6:07678Touchdown14–37
BALQ4 3:49518Punt14–37
NYGQ4 1:03760Turnover on downs14–37
BALQ4 0:0700End of half14–37

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner6/912700
Eli Manning4/182702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber19552.91
Eli Manning100.00
Willie Ponder1-4-4.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller18/3421940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chester Taylor251044.20
Jamal Lewis8324.00
Kyle Boller4194.80
Jamel White471.80
Alan Ricard144.00
B.J. Sams144.00
Kordell Stewart1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.4%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.34
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.20