2022 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

20·24

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapGiants
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.033
  • 45.3%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.058
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.004
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.40CPOE+1.68
  • 42.2%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.02
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15BAL @ NYG35–14BAL
2020 · W16NYG @ BAL13–27BAL
2016 · W6BAL @ NYG23–27NYG
2012 · W16NYG @ BAL14–33BAL
2008 · W11BAL @ NYG10–30NYG
2004 · W14NYG @ BAL14–37BAL
2000 · playoffsBAL @ NYG34–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NYG
BALQ1 15:00843Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:33619Punt0–0
BALQ1 5:341051Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 0:2638Punt0–0
BALQ2 13:34889Touchdown7–0
NYGQ2 9:261158Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 3:31764Field goal10–7
NYGQ2 1:4535Punt10–7
BALQ2 1:0539Punt10–7
NYGQ2 0:0820Turnover10–7
NYGQ3 15:00514Punt10–7
BALQ3 12:53764Field goal13–7
NYGQ3 9:411344Field goal13–10
BALQ3 2:00875Touchdown20–10
NYGQ4 12:541275Touchdown20–17
BALQ4 6:01619Turnover20–17
NYGQ4 2:5048Touchdown20–24
BALQ4 1:432-8Turnover20–24
NYGQ4 1:30211End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/3221011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake1011911.91
Lamar Jackson77711.00
J.K. Dobbins7152.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews7111061
Isaiah Likely24300
Demarcus Robinson35270
Josh Oliver23210
Devin Duvernay15140
Kenyan Drake1280
Tylan Wallace1140
Patrick Ricard0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones19/2717320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley22833.81
Daniel Jones661.00
Matt Breida3-6-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Daniel Bellinger55381
Wan'Dale Robinson34371
Marcus Johnson24250
Richie James22180
Darius Slayton13180
Matt Breida22170
Saquon Barkley33120
David Sills1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.96