Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.033
- 45.3%Success rate45.0%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.058
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.004
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.40CPOE+1.68
- 42.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.87Points / drive2.02
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/32 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 10 | 119 | 11.9 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 77 | 11.0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 7 | 11 | 106 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/27 | 173 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bellinger | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Marcus Johnson | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Richie James | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96