Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
33
Model margin
+1.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.016
- 40.2%Success rate40.1%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- 40.7%Third-down rate39.9%
- 36.0%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.45Points / drive1.73
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 12/25 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 27 | 102 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 15/39 | 112 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Montgomery | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 11 | 30 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 6 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.12