2000 · SB

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Trent Dilfer

34·7

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

33

Model margin

+1.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapGiants
  • -0.056EPA / play+0.016
  • 40.2%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.052EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 36.0%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.73
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15BAL @ NYG35–14BAL
2022 · W6BAL @ NYG20–24NYG
2020 · W16NYG @ BAL13–27BAL
2016 · W6BAL @ NYG23–27NYG
2012 · W16NYG @ BAL14–33BAL
2008 · W11BAL @ NYG10–30NYG
2004 · W14NYG @ BAL14–37BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:4334Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:0231Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:0230Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:55518Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:35241Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 6:5036Punt7–0
BALQ1 4:2134Punt7–0
NYGQ1 2:4132Punt7–0
BALQ1 1:2535Punt7–0
NYGQ1 0:1831Punt7–0
BALQ2 14:4166Punt7–0
NYGQ2 11:2240Turnover7–0
BALQ2 10:3657Punt7–0
NYGQ2 8:24945Punt7–0
BALQ2 4:09659Field goal10–0
NYGQ2 1:41343Turnover10–0
BALQ2 0:54221End of half10–0
BALQ3 15:0056Punt10–0
NYGQ3 11:3756Turnover10–0
BALQ3 8:57517Missed field goal10–0
NYGQ3 6:0338Punt10–0
BALQ3 4:2930Punt16–0
NYGQ3 3:5810Opp touchdown17–0
BALQ3 3:4900Opp touchdown17–6
NYGQ3 3:4900Touchdown23–7
BALQ3 3:3100Touchdown24–7
NYGQ3 3:1330Punt24–7
BALQ3 2:19520Punt24–7
NYGQ4 14:133-4Punt24–7
BALQ4 13:02633Touchdown31–7
NYGQ4 8:4500Field goal31–7
BALQ4 8:29419Field goal34–7
NYGQ4 5:2734Punt34–7
BALQ4 4:1032Punt34–7
NYGQ4 1:48722End of half34–7

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer12/2515310
Tony Banks0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis271023.81
Priest Holmes482.00
Jermaine Lewis111.00
Trent Dilfer100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Stokley36521
Qadry Ismail13440
Ben Coates33300
Pat Johnson1580
Jermaine Lewis1160
Shannon Sharpe1550
Priest Holmes1140
Jamal Lewis1240

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins15/3911204

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber11494.50
Kerry Collins3124.00
Joe Montgomery252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ike Hilliard311300
Tiki Barber610260
Amani Toomer25240
Ron Dixon13160
Howard Cross1170
Pete Mitchell1470
Greg Comella1120
Joe Jurevicius0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.12