Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play-0.074
- 40.7%Success rate40.8%
- -0.041EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.3%
- -0.41CPOE-1.63
- 38.2%Third-down rate36.0%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.63Points / drive1.46
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 26/48 | 307 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 23 | 87 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 9 | 97 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 6 | 10 | 36 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 32/46 | 403 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8 | 10 | 222 | 2 |
| Larry Donnell | 6 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.62