2016 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

23·27

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapGiants
  • -0.060EPA / play-0.074
  • 40.7%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -0.41CPOE-1.63
  • 38.2%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.46
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15BAL @ NYG35–14BAL
2022 · W6BAL @ NYG20–24NYG
2020 · W16NYG @ BAL13–27BAL
2012 · W16NYG @ BAL14–33BAL
2008 · W11BAL @ NYG10–30NYG
2004 · W14NYG @ BAL14–37BAL
2000 · playoffsBAL @ NYG34–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NYG
BALQ1 15:00975Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 10:1015Turnover3–0
BALQ1 10:03630Touchdown10–0
NYGQ1 6:4232Punt10–0
BALQ1 5:49614Punt10–0
NYGQ1 3:4539Punt10–0
BALQ1 1:421150Punt10–0
NYGQ2 10:29520Punt10–0
BALQ2 8:093-1Punt10–0
NYGQ2 7:081475Touchdown10–7
BALQ2 2:28618Punt10–7
NYGQ2 1:01522Turnover10–7
NYGQ3 15:001664Field goal10–10
BALQ3 9:48730Punt10–10
NYGQ3 5:5139Turnover10–10
BALQ3 4:36416Field goal13–10
NYGQ3 2:22175Touchdown13–17
BALQ3 2:10571Turnover on downs13–17
NYGQ4 14:55618Punt13–17
BALQ4 11:42714Field goal16–17
NYGQ4 9:14661Field goal16–20
BALQ4 5:541045Touchdown23–20
NYGQ4 2:04475Touchdown23–27
BALQ4 1:24929End of half23–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco26/4830700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West23873.82
Kenneth Dixon2115.50
Joe Flacco100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace49970
Kamar Aiken46640
Breshad Perriman38480
Dennis Pitta610360
Terrance West46360
Kenneth Dixon1210
Crockett Gillmore0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning32/4640332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings9151.70
Bobby Rainey6132.20
Paul Perkins2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.8102222
Larry Donnell67340
Victor Cruz37310
Sterling Shepard48250
Roger Lewis13241
Rashad Jennings44200
Bobby Rainey23160
Paul Perkins22160
Will Tye22150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.62