Closing spread
BAL -16.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-4.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.199EPA / play-0.088
- 49.4%Success rate41.1%
- +0.328EPA / dropback-0.073
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.116
- 12.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- +4.67CPOE-1.45
- 47.9%Third-down rate36.0%
- 76.9%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 2.80Points / drive1.28
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/25 | 290 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 65 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 5 | 80 | 2 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Devontez Walker | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Boyle | 12/24 | 123 | 1 | 1 |
| Tommy DeVito | 10/13 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tommy DeVito | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 10 | 14 | 82 | 1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.17
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-4.11