2024 · Week 15

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

35·14

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -16.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-4.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapGiants
  • +0.199EPA / play-0.088
  • 49.4%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.328EPA / dropback-0.073
  • +0.053EPA / rush-0.116
  • 12.0%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +4.67CPOE-1.45
  • 47.9%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 76.9%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 2.80Points / drive1.28
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. NYG are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W6BAL @ NYG20–24NYG
2020 · W16NYG @ BAL13–27BAL
2016 · W6BAL @ NYG23–27NYG
2012 · W16NYG @ BAL14–33BAL
2008 · W11BAL @ NYG10–30NYG
2004 · W14NYG @ BAL14–37BAL
2000 · playoffsBAL @ NYG34–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NYG
BALQ1 15:00225Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 14:0538Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:42622Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:2136Punt0–0
BALQ1 6:47633Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 3:18944Turnover on downs7–0
BALQ2 13:48575Touchdown14–0
NYGQ2 10:531739Touchdown14–7
BALQ2 2:15980Touchdown21–7
NYGQ2 0:3200End of half21–7
NYGQ3 15:00731Punt21–7
BALQ3 10:391286Touchdown28–7
NYGQ3 4:011257Turnover on downs28–7
BALQ4 14:53998Touchdown35–7
NYGQ4 10:461146Touchdown35–14
BALQ4 6:36617Punt35–14
NYGQ4 3:5456Turnover35–14
BALQ4 2:08310End of half35–14

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson21/2529050

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry14674.80
Lamar Jackson66510.80
Rasheen Ali8324.00
Justice Hill273.50
Josh Johnson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashod Bateman35802
Justice Hill55611
Zay Flowers67530
Nelson Agholor11260
Mark Andrews22241
Devontez Walker11211
Isaiah Likely22170
Tylan Wallace1180

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Boyle12/2412311
Tommy DeVito10/136800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.10313.10
Devin Singletary8253.11
Tommy DeVito100.00
Tim Boyle1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers1014821
Wan'Dale Robinson49380
Daniel Bellinger33350
Devin Singletary33160
Darius Slayton11160
Tyrone Tracy Jr.1440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -16.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.17
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-4.11