Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.050
- 43.6%Success rate44.2%
- -0.002EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.059
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.59CPOE+1.44
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 1.64Points / drive1.59
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 6:51 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 3:43 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 1:06 | 17 | 95 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| SF | Q2 7:23 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q2 4:22 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q2 2:39 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q2 1:48 | 4 | 23 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| SF | Q2 0:34 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q2 0:11 | 2 | 24 | End of half | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SF | Q3 12:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q3 10:53 | 4 | 55 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| SF | Q3 8:54 | 11 | 52 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| BUF | Q3 3:47 | 15 | 85 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| SF | Q4 10:00 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 10–3 |
| BUF | Q4 7:13 | 3 | 3 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| SF | Q4 5:26 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 10–3 |
| BUF | Q4 1:47 | 4 | -4 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| SF | Q4 1:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 14/23 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 24 | 66 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 10/21 | 112 | 0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 11/17 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 134 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.83