Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.050
- 43.6%Success rate44.2%
- -0.002EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.059
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.59CPOE+1.44
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 1.64Points / drive1.59
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 14/23 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 24 | 66 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 10/21 | 112 | 0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 11/17 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 134 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.83