Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+5.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.186
- 46.0%Success rate47.8%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.059EPA / rush+0.029
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.77CPOE+0.64
- 43.1%Third-down rate45.6%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
- 2.24Points / drive2.90
- 2.3%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 11/18 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/17 | 148 | 2 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 56 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Zach Davidson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.58