2024 · Week 13

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

10·35

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 28°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BUF -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

+5.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bills wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBills
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.186
  • 46.0%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.059EPA / rush+0.029
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.77CPOE+0.64
  • 43.1%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
  • 2.24Points / drive2.90
  • 2.3%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W13BUF @ SF34–24BUF
2016 · W6SF @ BUF16–45BUF
2012 · W5BUF @ SF3–45SF
2008 · W13SF @ BUF10–3SF
2004 · W16BUF @ SF41–7BUF
2001 · W12BUF @ SF0–35SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:21848Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 7:411465Touchdown3–7
SFQ1 0:03948Missed field goal3–13
BUFQ2 8:48165Touchdown3–14
SFQ2 8:38736Punt3–14
BUFQ2 3:31997Touchdown3–21
SFQ2 0:41334Missed field goal3–21
SFQ3 15:00527Turnover3–21
BUFQ3 11:4538Punt3–21
SFQ3 10:1030Punt3–21
BUFQ3 9:03644Touchdown3–28
SFQ3 5:58648Touchdown10–28
BUFQ3 2:5438Punt10–28
SFQ3 0:2932Turnover10–28
BUFQ4 14:53425Touchdown10–35
SFQ4 12:3100Missed field goal10–35
BUFQ4 12:22411Missed field goal10–35
SFQ4 9:343-4Punt10–35
BUFQ4 7:55841End of half10–35

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy11/189400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason13786.00
Christian McCaffrey7537.60
Isaac Guerendo4194.81
Brock Purdy242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jauan Jennings35560
Deebo Samuel Sr.45200
Christian McCaffrey23140
George Kittle1270
Ricky Pearsall0100
Isaac Guerendo11-30

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen13/1714820
Mitchell Trubisky1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook141077.61
Ray Davis11635.71
Ty Johnson5285.60
Josh Allen3186.01
Curtis Samuel177.00
Mitchell Trubisky4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dawson Knox22560
Khalil Shakir47300
Quintin Morris11140
James Cook11130
Amari Cooper33120
Ty Johnson1190
Mack Hollins1171
Ray Davis1140
Zach Davidson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.58