Closing spread
BUF -10
Total
41.5
Model margin
-4.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.155
- 40.7%Success rate37.7%
- -0.012EPA / dropback-0.120
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.212
- 8.2%Explosive rate5.6%
- 35.8%Third-down rate33.2%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.71Points / drive1.10
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.135EPA / play allowed+0.068
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 21/32 | 172 | 1 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 2/3 | 44 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 15 | 102 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Shaud Williams | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Pickett | 4/10 | 55 | 0 | 2 |
| Ken Dorsey | 5/10 | 54 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 10 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cody Pickett | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.6%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.19
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-4.32