Closing spread
SF -8.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.097
- 39.3%Success rate45.1%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.001
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- 34.4%Third-down rate44.9%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 1.05Points / drive1.93
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.039EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Van Pelt | 21/38 | 168 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 7 | 14 | 55 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 9 | 15 | 0 |
| Reggie Germany | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/27 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 25 | 124 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Vinny Sutherland | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| J.J. Stokes | 8 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 2 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.76