Closing spread
SF -1.5
Total
48
Model margin
-1.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.169EPA / play+0.010
- 50.4%Success rate45.8%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- +6.29CPOE-1.74
- 49.9%Third-down rate39.6%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 2.78Points / drive2.03
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 32/40 | 375 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 9 | 11 | 130 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 4 | 68 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 26/39 | 316 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | -11 | -5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 9 | 95 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Ross Dwelley | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.31