2020 · Week 13

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

34·24

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SF -1.5

Total

48

Model margin

-1.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge map49ers
  • +0.169EPA / play+0.010
  • 50.4%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.106
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +6.29CPOE-1.74
  • 49.9%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 68.4%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 2.78Points / drive2.03
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13SF @ BUF10–35BUF
2016 · W6SF @ BUF16–45BUF
2012 · W5BUF @ SF3–45SF
2008 · W13SF @ BUF10–3SF
2004 · W16BUF @ SF41–7BUF
2001 · W12BUF @ SF0–35SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–SF
BUFQ1 15:001269Turnover on downs0–0
SFQ1 9:171472Turnover on downs0–0
BUFQ1 1:3410Turnover0–0
SFQ1 1:2433Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 0:44672Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 13:02418Punt7–7
BUFQ2 10:301565Touchdown14–7
SFQ2 2:41529Punt14–7
BUFQ2 1:05671Field goal17–7
SFQ3 15:00753Field goal17–10
BUFQ3 11:141270Touchdown24–10
SFQ3 5:4820Turnover24–10
BUFQ3 5:28411Field goal27–10
SFQ3 3:09575Touchdown27–17
BUFQ3 0:261073Touchdown34–17
SFQ4 9:50874Turnover34–17
BUFQ4 6:55619Punt34–17
SFQ4 3:301378Touchdown34–24
BUFQ4 0:4300End of half34–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen32/4037540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary18613.40
Josh Allen6111.80
Zack Moss393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley9111301
Stefon Diggs1010920
Gabe Davis34681
Isaiah McKenzie22311
Dawson Knox44271
Devin Singletary34220
Zack Moss1150
Lee Smith0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens26/3931632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson7476.70
Raheem Mostert9424.70
Deebo Samuel Sr.133.00
Tevin Coleman2-11-5.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk59951
Deebo Samuel Sr.69730
Kendrick Bourne46350
Charlie Woerner22330
Jordan Reed34321
Ross Dwelley22290
Jeff Wilson25120
Raheem Mostert1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.31