Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.056
- 39.6%Success rate44.9%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.076
- -0.169EPA / rush+0.028
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.0%
- -5.73CPOE+0.94
- 34.6%Third-down rate41.7%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.59Points / drive2.08
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 13/29 | 187 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Quinton Patton | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 16/25 | 179 | 2 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 140 | 7.4 | 3 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Nick O'Leary | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.02