2016 · Week 6

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

16·45

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 72°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bills wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBills
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.056
  • 39.6%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback+0.076
  • -0.169EPA / rush+0.028
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -5.73CPOE+0.94
  • 34.6%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.08
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. BUF are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13SF @ BUF10–35BUF
2020 · W13BUF @ SF34–24BUF
2012 · W5BUF @ SF3–45SF
2008 · W13SF @ BUF10–3SF
2004 · W16BUF @ SF41–7BUF
2001 · W12BUF @ SF0–35SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–BUF
SFQ1 15:00635Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:30826Turnover0–0
SFQ1 9:36723Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 5:431175Touchdown3–7
SFQ1 0:14475Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 13:56775Touchdown10–14
SFQ2 10:18859Field goal13–14
BUFQ2 5:541473Field goal13–17
SFQ2 0:2100End of half13–17
BUFQ3 15:00417Punt13–17
SFQ3 13:0836Punt13–17
BUFQ3 12:2963Punt13–17
SFQ3 9:45516Punt13–17
BUFQ3 7:4336Punt13–17
SFQ3 6:51740Turnover on downs13–17
BUFQ3 4:29460Touchdown13–24
SFQ3 2:34731Field goal16–24
BUFQ4 14:48875Touchdown16–31
SFQ4 10:5300Touchdown16–31
BUFQ4 10:4325Touchdown16–38
SFQ4 10:323-7Punt16–38
BUFQ4 9:05763Touchdown16–45
SFQ4 5:4036Punt16–45
BUFQ4 4:3714Turnover16–45
SFQ4 4:28717Turnover on downs16–45
BUFQ4 2:34311End of half16–45

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick13/2918710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick8668.30
Carlos Hyde14523.70
Mike Davis5132.60
Shaun Draughn122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith37761
Quinton Patton47520
Vance McDonald22250
Rod Streater11160
Jeremy Kerley27120
Mike Davis1360
Shaun Draughn0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor16/2517920
EJ Manuel0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy191407.43
Tyrod Taylor8688.50
Mike Gillislee66110.21
Jonathan Williams5214.20
EJ Manuel3113.70
Reggie Bush263.00
Robert Woods166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay57520
Robert Woods56441
Justin Hunter13301
Nick O'Leary22290
Marquise Goodwin24220
LeSean McCoy1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.02