2012 · Week 5

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

3·45

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SF -10

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge map49ers
  • -0.007EPA / play+0.105
  • 42.3%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.021EPA / rush+0.029
  • 10.0%Explosive rate12.9%
  • -1.57CPOE+5.02
  • 39.8%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.92
  • 3.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13SF @ BUF10–35BUF
2020 · W13BUF @ SF34–24BUF
2016 · W6SF @ BUF16–45BUF
2008 · W13SF @ BUF10–3SF
2004 · W16BUF @ SF41–7BUF
2001 · W12BUF @ SF0–35SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–SF
SFQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:1533Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:42579Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 7:2557Punt0–3
SFQ1 4:29541Punt0–3
BUFQ1 1:301180Field goal3–3
SFQ2 10:46279Touchdown3–10
BUFQ2 9:54519Punt3–10
SFQ2 6:591375Turnover3–10
BUFQ2 0:49315Turnover3–16
SFQ2 0:29128Touchdown3–17
BUFQ2 0:2400End of half3–17
BUFQ3 15:0057Punt3–17
SFQ3 11:50681Touchdown3–24
BUFQ3 9:06560Turnover3–24
SFQ3 7:001389Touchdown3–31
BUFQ4 14:1232Punt3–31
SFQ4 13:00762Touchdown3–38
BUFQ4 9:5537Punt3–38
SFQ4 7:401169Touchdown3–45
BUFQ4 1:1125End of half3–45

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick16/2612601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brad Smith13535.00
Fred Jackson9293.20
C.J. Spiller7243.40
Ryan Fitzpatrick210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Scott Chandler46400
Steve Johnson610390
Trevor Graham23280
Donald Jones24130
Fred Jackson1150
Brad Smith1110
C.J. Spiller0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith18/2430330
Colin Kaepernick1/1700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore141067.61
Kendall Hunter11817.40
Alex Smith34916.30
Colin Kaepernick4399.81
Anthony Dixon4215.31
Kyle Williams166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree671131
Vernon Davis571060
Kyle Williams22501
Mario Manningham45261
Randy Moss12110
Garrett Celek1140
Kendall Hunter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.58