Closing spread
SF -10
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.105
- 42.3%Success rate47.9%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.021EPA / rush+0.029
- 10.0%Explosive rate12.9%
- -1.57CPOE+5.02
- 39.8%Third-down rate35.1%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.58Points / drive1.92
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16/26 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Smith | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 18/24 | 303 | 3 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 106 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 11 | 81 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 7 | 113 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 7 | 106 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58