Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.101EPA / play+0.066
- 49.2%Success rate42.5%
- +0.157EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.007EPA / rush+0.059
- 9.1%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.41CPOE-1.27
- 48.2%Third-down rate40.0%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.01Points / drive1.98
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 10:58 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 8:21 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q1 3:37 | 4 | 29 | Punt | 10–7 |
| DEN | Q1 1:55 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q1 1:44 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| DEN | Q1 0:10 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q2 12:05 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| DEN | Q2 6:29 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q2 2:24 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 10–17 |
| DEN | Q2 0:34 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| DEN | Q3 12:49 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–27 |
| CAR | Q3 11:02 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–27 |
| DEN | Q3 10:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–27 |
| CAR | Q3 9:05 | 5 | 40 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| DEN | Q3 6:13 | 8 | 33 | Missed field goal | 10–27 |
| CAR | Q3 1:47 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 10–30 |
| DEN | Q4 11:22 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–30 |
| CAR | Q4 10:00 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 10–30 |
| DEN | Q4 4:04 | 8 | 70 | End of half | 10–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/33 | 172 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Pope | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/26 | 253 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
48.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.93