Closing spread
DEN -13
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.011
- 41.8%Success rate42.8%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.075
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.06CPOE+0.58
- 36.3%Third-down rate40.4%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.88Points / drive2.16
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. DEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 24/37 | 224 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 4 | 6 | 78 | 1 |
| David Moore | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 7 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 4 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 28/37 | 284 | 3 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1/1 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 17 | 44 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 11 | 100 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 4 | 4 | 85 | 1 |
| Devaughn Vele | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.25