2024 · Week 8

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

14·28

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -13

Total

40.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.011
  • 41.8%Success rate42.8%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.075
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.06CPOE+0.58
  • 36.3%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.16
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. DEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12DEN @ CAR10–23CAR
2020 · W14DEN @ CAR32–27DEN
2016 · W1CAR @ DEN20–21DEN
2015 · playoffsCAR @ DEN10–24DEN
2012 · W10DEN @ CAR36–14DEN
2008 · W15DEN @ CAR10–30CAR
2004 · W5CAR @ DEN17–20DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DEN
DENQ1 15:00318Turnover0–0
CARQ1 13:391159Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 7:12929Punt7–0
CARQ1 1:5434Punt7–0
DENQ1 0:24755Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 12:29411Punt7–7
DENQ2 9:57792Touchdown7–14
CARQ2 6:51518Turnover on downs7–14
DENQ2 4:411144Touchdown7–21
CARQ2 1:1236Punt7–21
DENQ2 0:50413End of half7–21
CARQ3 15:003-1Punt7–21
DENQ3 13:22619Punt7–21
CARQ3 10:25514Turnover on downs7–21
DENQ3 8:24423Touchdown7–28
CARQ3 6:49740Turnover7–28
DENQ3 2:543-2Punt7–28
CARQ3 0:4247Punt7–28
DENQ4 14:11733Turnover on downs7–28
CARQ4 10:03743Turnover7–28
DENQ4 7:141178Turnover7–28
CARQ4 2:131083Touchdown14–28
DENQ4 0:1800End of half14–28

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young24/3722422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard15563.70
Miles Sanders177.00
Bryce Young362.00
Xavier Legette100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker46781
David Moore45390
Miles Sanders77380
Xavier Legette47341
Chuba Hubbard22150
Tommy Tremble23130
Ja'Tavion Sanders1170
Jonathan Mingo0300

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix28/3728430
Courtland Sutton1/12800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaleel McLaughlin8475.90
Javonte Williams17442.60
Audric Estimé144.00
Bo Nix540.81
Troy Franklin133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton8111000
Adam Trautman44851
Devaughn Vele33280
Lil'Jordan Humphrey46220
Lucas Krull22180
Jaleel McLaughlin1191
Javonte Williams4580
Marvin Mims Jr.1280
Troy Franklin1260
Nate Adkins1131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+6.25