2020 · Week 14

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

32·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -4

Total

46

Model margin

+1.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPanthers
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.019
  • 40.3%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.082
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -5.11CPOE+2.88
  • 39.5%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.21
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8CAR @ DEN14–28DEN
2022 · W12DEN @ CAR10–23CAR
2016 · W1CAR @ DEN20–21DEN
2015 · playoffsCAR @ DEN10–24DEN
2012 · W10DEN @ CAR36–14DEN
2008 · W15DEN @ CAR10–30CAR
2004 · W5CAR @ DEN17–20DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CAR
DENQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:2636Opp touchdown6–0
CARQ1 10:18844Punt6–0
DENQ1 5:07519Punt6–0
CARQ1 1:48616Punt6–0
DENQ2 12:521242Turnover6–0
CARQ2 6:2223Touchdown6–7
DENQ2 6:151358Touchdown13–7
CARQ2 1:33719End of half13–7
CARQ3 15:0045Punt13–7
DENQ3 13:11463Touchdown19–7
CARQ3 11:041058Field goal19–10
DENQ3 6:53779Touchdown25–10
CARQ3 3:35975Touchdown25–17
DENQ4 13:31519Punt25–17
CARQ4 10:15979Field goal25–20
DENQ4 5:12375Touchdown32–20
CARQ4 3:54562Touchdown32–27
DENQ4 3:263-2Punt32–27
CARQ4 2:4843Turnover on downs32–27
DENQ4 1:5000End of half32–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock21/2728040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon13685.20
Phillip Lindsay11242.20
Drew Lock640.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
KJ Hamler23862
Troy Fumagalli45530
Jerry Jeudy24420
Tim Patrick35361
Melvin Gordon33230
Nick Vannett44201
DaeSean Hamilton11130
Phillip Lindsay2270

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater30/4028300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis11514.62
Teddy Bridgewater33110.31
Curtis Samuel22211.00
Robbie Chosen2136.50
Rodney Smith2105.00
Trenton Cannon1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen812840
Curtis Samuel79680
Pharoh Cooper33520
Mike Davis56420
Ian Thomas34200
Rodney Smith22140
Brandon Zylstra1230
Alex Armah1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.23