Closing spread
CAR -4
Total
46
Model margin
+1.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.019
- 40.3%Success rate45.8%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- -5.11CPOE+2.88
- 39.5%Third-down rate39.5%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.59Points / drive2.21
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 21/27 | 280 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KJ Hamler | 2 | 3 | 86 | 2 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 4 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 30/40 | 283 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 8 | 12 | 84 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 3 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.23