2015 · SB

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

10·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

CAR -4.5

Total

43

Model margin

-0.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.074EPA / play-0.070
  • 45.5%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.118
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.41CPOE-1.92
  • 42.1%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.47
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. DEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8CAR @ DEN14–28DEN
2022 · W12DEN @ CAR10–23CAR
2020 · W14DEN @ CAR32–27DEN
2016 · W1CAR @ DEN20–21DEN
2012 · W10DEN @ CAR36–14DEN
2008 · W15DEN @ CAR10–30CAR
2004 · W5CAR @ DEN17–20DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DEN
DENQ1 15:00964Field goal0–3
CARQ1 10:4339Punt0–3
DENQ1 9:1939Punt0–3
CARQ1 7:233-15Opp touchdown0–10
CARQ1 6:27715Punt0–10
DENQ1 3:123-2Punt0–10
CARQ1 1:15977Touchdown7–10
DENQ2 11:253-7Punt7–10
CARQ2 10:463-2Punt7–10
DENQ2 9:1149Field goal7–13
CARQ2 6:58325Turnover7–13
DENQ2 6:32536Turnover7–13
CARQ2 4:2330Punt7–13
DENQ2 3:1738Punt7–13
CARQ2 1:55831End of half7–13
CARQ3 15:00969Missed field goal7–13
DENQ3 10:48649Field goal7–16
CARQ3 8:18552Turnover7–16
DENQ3 5:4448Punt7–16
CARQ3 3:1258Punt7–16
DENQ3 0:1953Turnover7–16
CARQ4 13:17534Field goal10–16
DENQ4 10:2134Punt10–16
CARQ4 9:00312Punt10–16
DENQ4 7:0733Punt10–16
CARQ4 4:513-6Turnover10–16
DENQ4 4:0442Touchdown10–24
CARQ4 3:083-14Punt10–24
DENQ4 1:5738Punt10–24
CARQ4 0:54320End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/4126501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton6457.50
Jonathan Stewart12292.41
Fozzy Whittaker4266.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Brown47800
Ted Ginn410740
Greg Olsen49410
Devin Funchess25400
Jerricho Cotchery25170
Fozzy Whittaker11140
Jonathan Stewart12-10

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning13/2314101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson23903.91
Ronnie Hillman500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders68830
Andre Caldwell11220
Owen Daniels12180
C.J. Anderson44100
Demaryius Thomas1680
Jordan Norwood0100
Ronnie Hillman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.21