Closing spread
CAR -4.5
Total
43
Model margin
-0.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.074EPA / play-0.070
- 45.5%Success rate40.5%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.118
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.41CPOE-1.92
- 42.1%Third-down rate35.2%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.31Points / drive1.47
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. DEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/41 | 265 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Brown | 4 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 13/23 | 141 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 23 | 90 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.21