Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.036
- 39.4%Success rate40.8%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.005
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.65CPOE-4.71
- 29.1%Third-down rate31.6%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.34Points / drive1.70
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/35 | 142 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 13 | 92 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 5 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jalen Virgil | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 11/19 | 164 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 24 | 113 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 4 | 6 | 103 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.13