2022 · Week 12

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

10·23

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

36.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPanthers
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.036
  • 39.4%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.062
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.005
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.65CPOE-4.71
  • 29.1%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.70
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8CAR @ DEN14–28DEN
2020 · W14DEN @ CAR32–27DEN
2016 · W1CAR @ DEN20–21DEN
2015 · playoffsCAR @ DEN10–24DEN
2012 · W10DEN @ CAR36–14DEN
2008 · W15DEN @ CAR10–30CAR
2004 · W5CAR @ DEN17–20DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CAR
CARQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:403-1Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:0542Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:3339Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:301171Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 0:30513Punt0–7
DENQ2 12:46418Field goal3–7
CARQ2 10:11951Field goal3–10
DENQ2 4:42352Turnover3–10
CARQ2 3:56418Punt3–10
DENQ2 1:48515Punt3–10
CARQ2 0:5432Punt3–10
DENQ2 0:30433Missed field goal3–10
DENQ3 15:0038Punt3–10
CARQ3 13:341072Touchdown3–17
DENQ3 7:21622Punt3–17
CARQ3 4:1238Punt3–17
DENQ3 1:5439Punt3–17
CARQ3 0:52667Field goal3–20
DENQ4 13:3300Field goal3–20
CARQ4 13:24617Field goal3–23
DENQ4 8:591768Touchdown10–23
CARQ4 3:1900Turnover on downs10–23
DENQ4 3:1710Turnover on downs10–23
DENQ4 3:1030Turnover on downs10–23
CARQ4 2:55623End of half10–23
CARQ4 0:2800End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/3514210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray13927.10
Kendall Hinton11313.00
Russell Wilson284.00
Marlon Mack273.50
Montrell Washington111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton68750
Kendall Hinton59350
Greg Dulcich23110
Brandon Johnson24101
Latavius Murray1160
Marlon Mack1150
Devine Ozigbo1130
Jalen Virgil0200
Montrell Washington13-30

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold11/1916410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman241134.70
Chuba Hubbard17653.80
Sam Darnold331.01
Laviska Shenault Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore461031
Ian Thomas22210
Laviska Shenault Jr.22190
Raheem Blackshear12110
Terrace Marshall Jr.1380
Tommy Tremble1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.13