2012 · Week 10

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

36·14

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPanthers
  • +0.113EPA / play+0.081
  • 48.0%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.271EPA / dropback+0.158
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.026
  • 9.9%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +7.00CPOE-1.55
  • 46.0%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.90
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8CAR @ DEN14–28DEN
2022 · W12DEN @ CAR10–23CAR
2020 · W14DEN @ CAR32–27DEN
2016 · W1CAR @ DEN20–21DEN
2015 · playoffsCAR @ DEN10–24DEN
2008 · W15DEN @ CAR10–30CAR
2004 · W5CAR @ DEN17–20DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CAR
CARQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:4039Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:50677Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 6:46415Punt0–7
CARQ1 4:5632Punt0–7
DENQ1 3:48559Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 1:323-3Opp touchdown14–7
CARQ2 14:4030Punt14–7
DENQ2 13:38625Field goal17–7
CARQ2 10:12410Punt17–7
DENQ2 7:32946Missed field goal17–7
CARQ2 1:57542Missed field goal17–7
DENQ2 0:40513Punt17–7
DENQ3 15:0037Punt17–7
CARQ3 13:433-1Punt17–7
DENQ3 11:56428Turnover23–7
CARQ3 10:1210Opp touchdown24–7
CARQ3 9:59811Punt24–7
DENQ3 5:40324Turnover24–7
CARQ3 4:4434Punt24–7
DENQ3 2:42862Field goal27–7
CARQ4 14:173-4Punt27–7
DENQ4 13:1636Punt27–7
CARQ4 12:254-6Safety29–7
DENQ4 10:3236Punt29–7
CARQ4 9:311272Touchdown29–14
DENQ4 5:09564Touchdown36–14
CARQ4 3:23728Turnover36–14
DENQ4 1:491-2End of half36–14

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/3830110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee14564.00
Ronnie Hillman551.01
Peyton Manning341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas9111350
Brandon Stokley45541
Willis McGahee46330
Joel Dreessen23310
Trindon Holliday22170
Eric Decker24150
Ronnie Hillman2280
Jacob Tamme1460
Matt Willis1120

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3624122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart8313.90
Cam Newton471.80
DeAngelo Williams661.00
Steve Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen9101022
Brandon LaFell48290
Jonathan Stewart22230
Steve Smith17190
DeAngelo Williams11170
Armanti Edwards1390
Gary Barnidge1180
Louis Murphy0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.19