Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.113EPA / play+0.081
- 48.0%Success rate44.9%
- +0.271EPA / dropback+0.158
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.026
- 9.9%Explosive rate11.0%
- +7.00CPOE-1.55
- 46.0%Third-down rate42.2%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.26Points / drive1.90
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/38 | 301 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 9 | 11 | 135 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Trindon Holliday | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/36 | 241 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 9 | 10 | 102 | 2 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.19