2016 · Week 1

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

20·21

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.048EPA / play-0.059
  • 40.9%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.038EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.153
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -4.49CPOE-0.31
  • 36.5%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.51
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. DEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8CAR @ DEN14–28DEN
2022 · W12DEN @ CAR10–23CAR
2020 · W14DEN @ CAR32–27DEN
2015 · playoffsCAR @ DEN10–24DEN
2012 · W10DEN @ CAR36–14DEN
2008 · W15DEN @ CAR10–30CAR
2004 · W5CAR @ DEN17–20DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DEN
DENQ1 15:00846Turnover0–0
CARQ1 11:37871Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 7:131150Turnover7–0
CARQ1 1:0335Punt7–0
DENQ2 14:52580Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 12:161887Touchdown14–7
DENQ2 3:0133Punt14–7
CARQ2 1:45547Field goal17–7
DENQ2 0:0300End of half17–7
CARQ3 15:00519Punt17–7
DENQ3 11:24535Turnover17–7
CARQ3 9:1030Punt17–7
DENQ3 7:3031Punt17–7
CARQ3 5:39413Punt17–7
DENQ3 3:58878Touchdown17–14
CARQ4 14:5026Turnover17–14
DENQ4 14:071023Touchdown17–21
CARQ4 9:26957Field goal20–21
DENQ4 4:213-7Punt20–21
CARQ4 3:061228Missed field goal20–21
DENQ4 0:0400End of half20–21

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/3319411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart15644.30
Cam Newton11544.91
Ted Ginn12020.00
Fozzy Whittaker3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin612911
Greg Olsen79730
Corey Brown12110
Devin Funchess1490
Ted Ginn1150
Fozzy Whittaker1140
Jonathan Stewart0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian18/2617812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson20924.61
Trevor Siemian5204.00
Devontae Booker382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders58490
Demaryius Thomas46480
C.J. Anderson45471
Virgil Green45280
Kapri Bibbs1160
Jordan Norwood0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

6.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.45