Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play-0.059
- 40.9%Success rate41.0%
- -0.038EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.153
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- -4.49CPOE-0.31
- 36.5%Third-down rate34.4%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 1.61Points / drive1.51
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. DEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/33 | 194 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 6 | 12 | 91 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 18/26 | 178 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Trevor Siemian | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Virgil Green | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
6.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45