Closing spread
DEN -4
Total
38
Model margin
+3.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.059
- 42.1%Success rate45.7%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- 39.2%Third-down rate38.2%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.65Points / drive1.84
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. DEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 13/20 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/29 | 226 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 30 | 193 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Darius Watts | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.26