Closing spread
DEN -4
Total
38
Model margin
+3.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.059
- 42.1%Success rate45.7%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- 39.2%Third-down rate38.2%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.65Points / drive1.84
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. DEN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 67 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 10:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 9:14 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| CAR | Q1 5:55 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q1 0:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CAR | Q2 13:59 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q2 9:35 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CAR | Q2 7:27 | 4 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| DEN | Q2 5:26 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–6 |
| CAR | Q2 4:16 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| DEN | Q2 2:17 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| CAR | Q2 0:52 | 1 | -10 | End of half | 10–13 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 53 | Missed field goal | 10–13 |
| CAR | Q3 12:01 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 11:55 | 1 | 6 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 11:23 | 1 | 13 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 10:48 | 4 | 31 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 8:24 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| CAR | Q3 6:32 | 3 | 3 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| DEN | Q3 5:03 | 7 | 20 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| CAR | Q3 1:49 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 17–13 |
| DEN | Q4 14:00 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| CAR | Q4 9:42 | 6 | 40 | Punt | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q4 6:42 | 10 | 54 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 13/20 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/29 | 226 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 30 | 193 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Darius Watts | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.26