Closing spread
DAL -5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.018
- 40.6%Success rate41.9%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.021
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.015
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.2%
- -0.33CPOE+3.06
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.2%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.61Points / drive1.67
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/25 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 8 | 108 | 13.5 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/45 | 252 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashard Choice | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.70