Closing spread
DAL -5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.018
- 40.6%Success rate41.9%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.021
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.015
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.2%
- -0.33CPOE+3.06
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.2%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.61Points / drive1.67
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.6 points. DAL are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:49 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:56 | 3 | 4 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 11:05 | 11 | 43 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q1 6:14 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q1 4:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q1 2:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q1 0:16 | 9 | 30 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q2 10:54 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 6–7 |
| BAL | Q2 8:14 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q2 4:25 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–7 |
| BAL | Q2 3:05 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:44 | 6 | 24 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| BAL | Q2 0:27 | 3 | 32 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 9–7 |
| DAL | Q3 12:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–7 |
| BAL | Q3 11:17 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 9–7 |
| DAL | Q3 8:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 9–7 |
| BAL | Q3 6:12 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 16–7 |
| DAL | Q3 2:51 | 11 | 52 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| BAL | Q4 11:28 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 19–10 |
| DAL | Q4 6:30 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 19–17 |
| BAL | Q4 3:50 | 1 | 77 | Touchdown | 26–17 |
| DAL | Q4 3:32 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 26–24 |
| BAL | Q4 1:36 | 1 | 82 | Touchdown | 33–24 |
| DAL | Q4 1:18 | 4 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 33–24 |
| BAL | Q4 0:52 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 33–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/25 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 8 | 108 | 13.5 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/45 | 252 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashard Choice | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.70