Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
36
Model margin
+3.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.113
- 42.6%Success rate38.4%
- -0.005EPA / dropback-0.127
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.096
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- 36.3%Third-down rate35.0%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.44Points / drive1.22
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.136
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–1 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.6 points. BAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:20 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 10:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 8:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 6:32 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 5:50 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 3:53 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q2 15:00 | 14 | 78 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q2 6:54 | 8 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q2 2:45 | 7 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q2 0:34 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q2 0:09 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q3 13:03 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q3 11:21 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q3 6:53 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q3 6:37 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| DAL | Q3 4:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| BAL | Q3 2:13 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DAL | Q3 0:44 | 5 | -2 | Punt | 3–14 |
| BAL | Q4 14:06 | 6 | 13 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| DAL | Q4 11:22 | 2 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 3–24 |
| DAL | Q4 10:42 | 1 | -21 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| BAL | Q4 10:23 | 2 | 1 | Touchdown | 3–30 |
| DAL | Q4 9:46 | 17 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–30 |
| BAL | Q4 0:40 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 9/22 | 109 | 0 | 2 |
| Drew Henson | 6/6 | 47 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 30 | 81 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Henson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 23/34 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
| Randy Hymes | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Musa Smith | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.92