Closing spread
BAL -1.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.199EPA / play-0.089
- 49.4%Success rate41.4%
- +0.328EPA / dropback-0.067
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.128
- 12.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- +4.67CPOE-4.87
- 47.9%Third-down rate37.1%
- 76.9%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.80Points / drive1.68
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12/15 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 25 | 151 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 14 | 87 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 56 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 28/51 | 379 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | 6 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 3 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.24