2024 · Week 3

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

28·25

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

BAL -1.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-3.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapCowboys
  • +0.199EPA / play-0.089
  • 49.4%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.328EPA / dropback-0.067
  • +0.053EPA / rush-0.128
  • 12.0%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +4.67CPOE-4.87
  • 47.9%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 76.9%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.80Points / drive1.68
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 7–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.6 points. DAL are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3BAL @ DAL34–31BAL
2020 · W13DAL @ BAL17–34BAL
2016 · W11BAL @ DAL17–27DAL
2012 · W6DAL @ BAL29–31BAL
2008 · W16BAL @ DAL33–24BAL
2004 · W11DAL @ BAL10–30BAL
2000 · W12DAL @ BAL0–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–DAL
DALQ1 15:00817Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:03571Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 9:36624Field goal7–3
BALQ1 6:33770Touchdown14–3
DALQ1 2:41870Turnover14–3
BALQ2 14:34834Punt14–3
DALQ2 9:1830Punt14–3
BALQ2 8:1439Punt14–3
DALQ2 5:46621Punt14–3
BALQ2 3:07888Touchdown21–3
DALQ2 0:25337Field goal21–6
BALQ2 0:0200End of half21–6
BALQ3 15:00680Touchdown28–6
DALQ3 11:581013Punt28–6
BALQ3 7:521042Punt28–6
DALQ3 1:36839Turnover on downs28–6
BALQ4 14:47633Missed field goal28–6
DALQ4 10:41664Touchdown28–12
BALQ4 8:5300Touchdown28–12
DALQ4 8:51756Touchdown28–18
BALQ4 7:0737Punt28–18
DALQ4 5:261371Touchdown28–25
BALQ4 2:53524End of half28–25

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson12/1518210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry251516.02
Lamar Jackson14876.21
Justice Hill5336.60
Zay Flowers133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor11560
Charlie Kolar11300
Rashod Bateman34281
Derrick Henry11230
Justice Hill22210
Zay Flowers34200
Isaiah Likely1140
Mark Andrews0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott28/5137920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle8324.00
Dak Prescott273.51
Ezekiel Elliott362.00
Deuce Vaughn252.50
KaVontae Turpin111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jake Ferguson611950
CeeDee Lamb47670
KaVontae Turpin33511
Jalen Tolbert35421
Hunter Luepke23410
Rico Dowdle35240
Jalen Brooks13240
Brandin Cooks26160
Deuce Vaughn1280
Ezekiel Elliott1260
Luke Schoonmaker1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.24