Closing spread
BAL -8.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.109
- 46.1%Success rate45.2%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.073EPA / rush+0.093
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- -1.42CPOE-0.32
- 41.5%Third-down rate49.8%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 1.87Points / drive2.64
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. BAL are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 31/48 | 285 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 18 | 77 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 7 | 11 | 86 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 9 | 43 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12/17 | 107 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 7 | 101 | 14.4 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 94 | 7.2 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+4.53