2020 · Week 13

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Andy Dalton

17·34

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -8.5

Total

46

Model margin

+4.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapRavens
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.109
  • 46.1%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.125
  • -0.073EPA / rush+0.093
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -1.42CPOE-0.32
  • 41.5%Third-down rate49.8%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.64
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 7–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.6 points. BAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3BAL @ DAL34–31BAL
2024 · W3BAL @ DAL28–25BAL
2016 · W11BAL @ DAL17–27DAL
2012 · W6DAL @ BAL29–31BAL
2008 · W16BAL @ DAL33–24BAL
2004 · W11DAL @ BAL10–30BAL
2000 · W12DAL @ BAL0–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–BAL
DALQ1 15:00928Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:57517Turnover0–0
DALQ1 7:03521Field goal3–0
BALQ1 4:21783Touchdown3–7
DALQ1 0:25328Touchdown10–7
BALQ2 14:19862Missed field goal10–7
DALQ2 8:53211Turnover10–13
BALQ2 8:15138Touchdown10–14
DALQ2 8:081158Missed field goal10–14
BALQ2 2:02635Field goal10–17
DALQ2 0:46740Turnover on downs10–17
BALQ3 15:0036Punt10–17
DALQ3 13:22827Missed field goal10–17
BALQ3 9:07962Touchdown10–24
DALQ3 4:401144Missed field goal10–24
BALQ4 14:141054Field goal10–27
DALQ4 8:151372Touchdown17–27
BALQ4 3:59644Touchdown17–34
DALQ4 2:081059End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton31/4828521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott18774.30
Tony Pollard8222.80
Amari Cooper11010.00
Andy Dalton122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup711861
CeeDee Lamb69460
Dalton Schultz44440
Amari Cooper59431
Noah Brown34400
Ezekiel Elliott46180
Tony Pollard1160
Blake Bell1120

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson12/1710721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards710114.40
Lamar Jackson13947.21
J.K. Dobbins11716.51
Mark Ingram6284.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown58391
Miles Boykin13381
Luke Willson11120
Patrick Ricard22110
Justice Hill1140
Devin Duvernay1120
Mark Ingram1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+4.53