2026 · Week 3

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

34·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

Maracana Stadium · open · grass · 77°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

53.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapCowboys
  • +0.017EPA / play+0.120
  • 44.9%Success rate47.6%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.201
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.034
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +2.17CPOE+0.48
  • 39.5%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 63.3%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.88
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 7–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.6 points. DAL are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3BAL @ DAL28–25BAL
2020 · W13DAL @ BAL17–34BAL
2016 · W11BAL @ DAL17–27DAL
2012 · W6DAL @ BAL29–31BAL
2008 · W16BAL @ DAL33–24BAL
2004 · W11DAL @ BAL10–30BAL
2000 · W12DAL @ BAL0–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–DAL
BALQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:271057Field goal0–3
BALQ1 8:1049Turnover on downs0–3
DALQ1 6:06517Touchdown0–10
BALQ1 4:32665Touchdown7–10
DALQ1 1:18415Punt7–10
BALQ2 14:53926Touchdown14–10
DALQ2 11:2348Turnover on downs14–10
BALQ2 9:18939Field goal17–10
DALQ2 4:441045Field goal17–13
BALQ2 0:1814End of half17–13
DALQ3 15:00940Turnover17–13
BALQ3 10:343-4Punt17–13
DALQ3 8:55636Missed field goal17–13
BALQ3 5:54456Touchdown24–13
DALQ3 3:44652Touchdown24–21
BALQ3 1:48876Turnover on downs24–21
DALQ4 13:03796Touchdown24–28
BALQ4 9:4235Punt24–28
DALQ4 7:2934Punt24–28
BALQ4 5:451369Touchdown31–28
DALQ4 1:30945Field goal31–31
BALQ4 0:07127Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson15/2018620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry26893.42
Lamar Jackson6508.30
Justice Hill5336.60
Zay Flowers12020.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers56840
Rashod Bateman23370
Mark Andrews35240
Matthew Hibner22231
Josh Cuevas11140
Chris Moore1141
Derrick Henry1100
Devontez Walker0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/4027610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams19985.21
Tyler Goodson6223.70
Dak Prescott4194.80
KaVontae Turpin199.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb781120
George Pickens711820
Jake Ferguson35231
Ryan Flournoy28220
Brevyn Spann-Ford11190
KaVontae Turpin1290
Luke Schoonmaker1190
Javonte Williams2350
Tyler Goodson11-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.68
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.88