Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
52.5
Model margin
-11.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
6.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.209EPA / play+0.271
- 46.9%Success rate48.3%
- +0.316EPA / dropback+0.425
- +0.101EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.9%Explosive rate0.0%
- +4.80CPOE+7.73
- 37.5%Third-down rate72.7%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.13Points / drive2.98
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
6.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
21.8%
Expected total
52.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-13.33
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-11.11