2012 · Week 6

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

29·31

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 69°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapRavens
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.025
  • 47.2%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.043
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +3.18CPOE-0.27
  • 43.3%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.80
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 7–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.6 points. BAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3BAL @ DAL34–31BAL
2024 · W3BAL @ DAL28–25BAL
2020 · W13DAL @ BAL17–34BAL
2016 · W11BAL @ DAL17–27DAL
2008 · W16BAL @ DAL33–24BAL
2004 · W11DAL @ BAL10–30BAL
2000 · W12DAL @ BAL0–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–BAL
BALQ1 15:001360Field goal0–3
DALQ1 7:50990Touchdown7–3
BALQ1 3:1838Punt7–3
DALQ1 2:311261Field goal10–3
BALQ2 11:29979Touchdown10–10
DALQ2 7:291050Turnover10–10
BALQ2 2:15890Touchdown10–17
DALQ2 0:4111End of half10–17
DALQ3 15:00660Field goal13–23
BALQ3 11:3700Touchdown13–24
DALQ3 11:241475Touchdown20–24
BALQ3 3:1931Punt20–24
DALQ3 2:2057Punt20–24
BALQ4 15:0032Punt20–24
DALQ4 13:29826Field goal23–24
BALQ4 8:221177Touchdown23–31
DALQ4 4:4122110Touchdown29–31
BALQ4 0:3200Missed field goal29–31
DALQ4 0:3021Missed field goal29–31
BALQ4 0:0200End of half29–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo25/3626121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray14936.60
Felix Jones18925.11
Phillip Tanner9313.40
Lance Dunbar11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten67880
Dez Bryant1113842
Miles Austin25310
John Phillips12190
Felix Jones11130
DeMarco Murray1140
Kevin Ogletree0400

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco17/2623410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice16633.92
Bernard Pierce4215.30
Joe Flacco221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin56980
Ray Rice14430
Dennis Pitta45330
Torrey Smith24241
Jacoby Jones23150
Ed Dickson1280
Bernard Pierce1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+2.62