Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.025
- 47.2%Success rate41.5%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.0%
- +3.18CPOE-0.27
- 43.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.79Points / drive1.80
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. BAL are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 25/36 | 261 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 18 | 92 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Phillip Tanner | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 6 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 11 | 13 | 84 | 2 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/26 | 234 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Bernard Pierce | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 6 | 98 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+2.62