2000 · Week 12

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

0·27

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Trent Dilfer

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

36

Model margin

+7.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapRavens
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.056
  • 41.5%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.085EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.052
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 36.8%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.45
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.3%
  • +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.217

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 7–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.6 points. BAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3BAL @ DAL34–31BAL
2024 · W3BAL @ DAL28–25BAL
2020 · W13DAL @ BAL17–34BAL
2016 · W11BAL @ DAL17–27DAL
2012 · W6DAL @ BAL29–31BAL
2008 · W16BAL @ DAL33–24BAL
2004 · W11DAL @ BAL10–30BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–BAL
BALQ1 15:00781Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 11:2534Punt0–7
BALQ1 9:28845Field goal0–10
DALQ1 5:02420Punt0–10
BALQ1 1:55957Punt0–10
DALQ2 11:5735Punt0–10
BALQ2 11:0658Punt0–10
DALQ2 9:051052Turnover0–10
BALQ2 4:17471Touchdown0–17
DALQ2 2:0737Punt0–17
BALQ2 1:27321Turnover0–17
DALQ2 0:45423Turnover0–17
BALQ2 0:1316Missed field goal0–17
DALQ2 0:031-1End of half0–17
DALQ3 15:0039Punt0–17
BALQ3 13:33524Punt0–17
DALQ3 10:17852Missed field goal0–17
BALQ3 5:17842Turnover0–17
DALQ3 0:4136Punt0–17
BALQ4 14:471163Field goal0–20
DALQ4 7:4230Punt0–20
BALQ4 6:30651Touchdown0–27
DALQ4 3:52315Turnover0–27
BALQ4 2:45410End of half0–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman19/3313803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith11484.40
Chris Warren177.00
Troy Aikman200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight49500
Wane McGarity69400
Chris Warren47190
Jason Tucker12110
Jackie Harris1160
Emmitt Smith0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer18/2424222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis281876.70
Priest Holmes13644.91
Trent Dilfer122.00
Tony Banks2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe551011
Qadry Ismail35511
Priest Holmes45340
Brandon Stokley12320
Jamal Lewis44200
Ben Coates1240
Pat Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.8%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.18