Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
36
Model margin
+7.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.056
- 41.5%Success rate40.2%
- -0.085EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.052
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- 36.8%Third-down rate40.7%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
- 1.35Points / drive1.45
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.217
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. BAL are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 19/33 | 138 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 6 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 18/24 | 242 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 28 | 187 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 5 | 101 | 1 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.8%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.18