Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.126
- 40.7%Success rate48.6%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.226
- -0.100EPA / rush+0.006
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- -0.41CPOE+4.07
- 38.2%Third-down rate43.8%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.63Points / drive2.52
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/35 | 269 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 8 | 9 | 99 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 27/36 | 301 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 25 | 97 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 8 | 80 | 2 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Brice Butler | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.48