2016 · Week 11

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

17·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapCowboys
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.126
  • 40.7%Success rate48.6%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.226
  • -0.100EPA / rush+0.006
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -0.41CPOE+4.07
  • 38.2%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.52
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 7–1 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.6 points. DAL are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3BAL @ DAL34–31BAL
2024 · W3BAL @ DAL28–25BAL
2020 · W13DAL @ BAL17–34BAL
2012 · W6DAL @ BAL29–31BAL
2008 · W16BAL @ DAL33–24BAL
2004 · W11DAL @ BAL10–30BAL
2000 · W12DAL @ BAL0–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–DAL
DALQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:05525Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:35621Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:37690Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 5:28834Punt7–0
BALQ1 0:04615Punt7–0
DALQ2 13:1532Punt7–0
BALQ2 12:11416Punt7–0
DALQ2 9:31872Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 5:55953Field goal10–7
DALQ2 1:37768Field goal10–10
BALQ2 0:0400End of half10–10
BALQ3 15:00422Punt10–10
DALQ3 13:201159Touchdown10–17
BALQ3 7:31533Punt10–17
DALQ3 4:241388Touchdown10–24
BALQ4 11:30960Touchdown17–24
DALQ4 8:161272Field goal17–27
BALQ4 1:50754End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco23/3526910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West8425.31
Kenneth Dixon6406.70
Mike Wallace11313.00
Joe Flacco166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith89991
Mike Wallace510620
Kamar Aiken35350
Dennis Pitta35300
Terrance West12110
Kenneth Dixon0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott27/3630130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott25973.90
Dak Prescott2168.00
Alfred Morris231.50
Lance Dunbar122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant68802
Cole Beasley56591
Brice Butler22490
Jason Witten57370
Ezekiel Elliott45300
Gavin Escobar23210
Lance Dunbar23140
Terrance Williams12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.48