Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
41
Model margin
+4.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.039
- 47.3%Success rate40.9%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.001
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.081
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.84CPOE-2.18
- 43.7%Third-down rate39.7%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 2.09Points / drive1.59
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 13:17 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 10:07 | 9 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 5:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 3:30 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYG | Q2 14:52 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q2 12:52 | 3 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| NYG | Q2 11:22 | 5 | 15 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 9:30 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NYG | Q2 8:32 | 14 | 89 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| MIN | Q2 1:03 | 5 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 6–10 |
| NYG | Q2 0:27 | 4 | 33 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 16–10 |
| MIN | Q3 9:29 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 16–10 |
| NYG | Q3 6:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 16–10 |
| MIN | Q3 4:49 | 8 | 60 | Turnover | 16–10 |
| NYG | Q3 0:49 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 19–10 |
| MIN | Q4 11:22 | 3 | 71 | Touchdown | 19–17 |
| NYG | Q4 9:26 | 9 | 45 | Missed field goal | 19–17 |
| MIN | Q4 3:17 | 9 | 25 | Field goal | 19–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 11/19 | 119 | 0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 8/11 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 16/26 | 239 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 21 | 103 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.81