2010 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

22·19

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Rogers Centre · dome · astroplay

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBills
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.106
  • 39.0%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.132
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +0.87CPOE-1.94
  • 33.1%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.49
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. BUF are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16BUF @ CHI35–13BUF
2018 · W9CHI @ BUF41–9CHI
2014 · W1BUF @ CHI23–20BUF
2006 · W5BUF @ CHI7–40CHI
2002 · W4CHI @ BUF27–33BUF
2000 · W11CHI @ BUF3–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–BUF
CHIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:523-2Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:2633Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:44731Punt0–0
CHIQ1 5:091586Touchdown7–0
BUFQ2 12:06932Punt7–0
CHIQ2 7:311378Missed field goal7–0
BUFQ2 1:451153Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 0:1300End of half7–7
BUFQ3 15:00835Turnover7–7
CHIQ3 11:12960Touchdown14–7
BUFQ3 6:18880Touchdown14–13
CHIQ3 2:59817Turnover14–13
BUFQ4 14:45851Touchdown14–19
CHIQ4 10:2432Punt14–19
BUFQ4 9:1610Turnover14–19
CHIQ4 9:03623Touchdown22–19
BUFQ4 6:411336Turnover on downs22–19
CHIQ4 2:2039Punt22–19
BUFQ4 1:04324Turnover22–19
CHIQ4 0:2700End of half22–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/3018820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte14493.50
Jay Cutler5397.80
Chester Taylor10131.31
Earl Bennett155.00
Devin Hester1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earl Bennett45521
Johnny Knox35490
Greg Olsen38291
Devin Hester23230
Chester Taylor11140
Matt Forte35120
Brandon Manumaleuna1190
Devin Aromashodu0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick31/5129912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller7202.90
Fred Jackson8162.01
Ryan Fitzpatrick294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson11141450
Roscoe Parrish711601
Lee Evans38310
Fred Jackson57200
David Nelson25190
David Martin11110
Donald Jones1280
C.J. Spiller1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.49