Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.106
- 39.0%Success rate40.1%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.132
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.87CPOE-1.94
- 33.1%Third-down rate38.1%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.43Points / drive1.49
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. BUF are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/30 | 188 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 4 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 8 | 29 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Manumaleuna | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 31/51 | 299 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 11 | 14 | 145 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 7 | 11 | 60 | 1 |
| Lee Evans | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.49