Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.144EPA / play-0.059
- 38.4%Success rate39.9%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.203
- 6.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- 29.8%Third-down rate38.0%
- 35.6%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 0.80Points / drive1.36
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. BUF are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 11/24 | 106 | 0 | 3 |
| Jim Miller | 9/13 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 6 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Scott Dragos | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 16/26 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
| Rob Johnson | 2/3 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 5 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.81