2000 · Week 11

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

3·20

Bills

Buffalo

QB Doug Flutie

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 40°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BUF -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBills
  • -0.144EPA / play-0.059
  • 38.4%Success rate39.9%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.203
  • 6.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 35.6%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 0.80Points / drive1.36
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
  • -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. BUF are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16BUF @ CHI35–13BUF
2018 · W9CHI @ BUF41–9CHI
2014 · W1BUF @ CHI23–20BUF
2010 · W9CHI @ BUF22–19CHI
2006 · W5BUF @ CHI7–40CHI
2002 · W4CHI @ BUF27–33BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–BUF
CHIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:22931Turnover on downs0–0
CHIQ1 8:0836Punt0–0
BUFQ1 6:18520Punt0–0
CHIQ1 3:413-1Punt0–0
BUFQ1 2:36558—0–0
BUFQ200Field goal0–0
BUFQ2 15:002-2Field goal0–3
CHIQ2 13:36512Punt0–3
BUFQ2 10:363-1Punt0–3
CHIQ2 9:31937Field goal3–3
BUFQ2 4:56754Field goal3–6
CHIQ2 1:01431End of half3–6
BUFQ31475Touchdown3–13
CHIQ3 6:5737Punt3–13
BUFQ3 5:11438Turnover3–13
CHIQ3 3:22517Turnover3–13
BUFQ3 0:54212—3–13
BUFQ400Missed field goal3–13
BUFQ4 15:0038Missed field goal3–13
CHIQ4 12:4139Punt3–13
BUFQ4 10:5535Punt3–13
CHIQ4 9:50641Turnover3–13
BUFQ4 7:3132Punt3–13
CHIQ4 5:1548Punt3–13
BUFQ4 4:2233Punt3–13
CHIQ4 3:56740Opp touchdown3–20
BUFQ4 2:4000Opp touchdown3–20
CHIQ4 2:40624Turnover3–20
BUFQ4 1:333-4End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews11/2410603
Jim Miller9/134000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen16875.40
Curtis Enis351.70
Shane Matthews155.00
Jim Miller122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie Kennison612550
Marcus Robinson57370
Marty Booker44170
James Allen12120
Kaseem Sinceno23120
Macey Brooks1490
Scott Dragos1140

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Flutie16/2617101
Rob Johnson2/32900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sammy Morris10303.00
Antowain Smith13292.20
Shawn Bryson5214.20
Rob Johnson11919.00
Doug Flutie661.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds58910
Sammy Morris44320
Peerless Price25260
Jeremy McDaniel11240
Shawn Bryson44110
Antowain Smith1290
Jay Riemersma1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.21
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.81