Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.021
- 40.0%Success rate47.1%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.197EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- 33.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.35Points / drive1.81
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. BUF are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 19/31 | 188 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 23 | 48 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 4 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Dez White | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| John Davis | 3 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| Anthony Thomas | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 28/36 | 328 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 9 | 124 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 3 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Josh Reed | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.28