2002 · Week 4

Final / OT

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

27·33

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 66°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBills
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.021
  • 40.0%Success rate47.1%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback+0.091
  • -0.197EPA / rush-0.110
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 33.7%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.81
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed+0.022

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. BUF are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16BUF @ CHI35–13BUF
2018 · W9CHI @ BUF41–9CHI
2014 · W1BUF @ CHI23–20BUF
2010 · W9CHI @ BUF22–19CHI
2006 · W5BUF @ CHI7–40CHI
2000 · W11CHI @ BUF3–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00780Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 10:48614Punt0–7
BUFQ1 7:10949Opp touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 2:1300Opp touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 2:13941Field goal7–10
CHIQ2 12:49612Punt7–10
BUFQ2 9:35866Touchdown7–17
CHIQ2 4:361061Touchdown14–17
BUFQ2 0:281-14End of half14–17
CHIQ3 15:0032Punt14–17
BUFQ3 13:24413Field goal14–20
CHIQ3 11:1137Punt14–20
BUFQ3 8:4333Punt14–20
CHIQ3 7:3536Field goal17–20
BUFQ3 6:503-4Punt17–20
CHIQ3 4:54627Punt17–20
BUFQ3 1:593-2Punt17–20
CHIQ3 0:21764Field goal20–20
BUFQ4 12:39678Touchdown20–27
CHIQ4 8:551243Touchdown27–27
BUFQ4 2:46844Missed field goal27–27
CHIQ4 0:2400End of half27–27
CHIOT35Punt27–27
BUFOT256Touchdown27–33

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller19/3118820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas23482.10
Leon Johnson155.00
Dez White100.00
Jim Miller1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker410820
Marcus Robinson55300
Dez White24280
David Terrell34231
John Davis34141
Anthony Thomas24110

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe28/3632840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry12685.70
Shawn Bryson11312.80
Drew Bledsoe242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds891241
Jay Riemersma45460
Travis Henry33411
Dave Moore33381
Josh Reed24160
Peerless Price35151
Shawn Bryson1390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.28