Closing spread
CHI -9.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.046
- 41.6%Success rate40.3%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- +3.28CPOE-3.50
- 30.9%Third-down rate37.7%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.31Points / drive1.80
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. CHI are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 14/27 | 115 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 15/27 | 182 | 2 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4/4 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 109 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.49