Closing spread
CHI -9.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.046
- 41.6%Success rate40.3%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- +3.28CPOE-3.50
- 30.9%Third-down rate37.7%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.31Points / drive1.80
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. CHI are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:17 | 5 | 15 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 9:07 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 7:29 | 10 | 36 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q1 3:43 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q1 2:11 | 8 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| BUF | Q2 13:01 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q2 11:13 | 5 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| BUF | Q2 8:30 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 0–20 |
| CHI | Q2 6:14 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–27 |
| BUF | Q2 4:22 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| CHI | Q2 1:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–27 |
| BUF | Q2 0:15 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 0–27 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–27 |
| BUF | Q3 14:03 | 5 | 47 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| CHI | Q3 11:23 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 0–30 |
| BUF | Q3 7:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–30 |
| CHI | Q3 5:26 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 0–30 |
| BUF | Q3 0:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–30 |
| CHI | Q4 14:44 | 13 | 40 | Field goal | 0–33 |
| BUF | Q4 6:05 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–33 |
| CHI | Q4 5:55 | 3 | 15 | Touchdown | 0–40 |
| BUF | Q4 4:36 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–40 |
| CHI | Q4 2:54 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–40 |
| BUF | Q4 2:44 | 7 | 36 | Touchdown | 7–40 |
| CHI | Q4 1:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–40 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 14/27 | 115 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 15/27 | 182 | 2 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4/4 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 109 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.49