Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
47
Model margin
+0.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.055
- 41.0%Success rate44.2%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- -1.80CPOE-0.14
- 37.3%Third-down rate38.4%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.48Points / drive1.62
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. CHI are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 16/22 | 173 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 61 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 5 | 60 | 12.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 4 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 34/49 | 349 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 17 | 82 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 8 | 9 | 87 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 12 | 71 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 8 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.67
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50