2014 · Week 1

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

23·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CHI -7

Total

47

Model margin

+0.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBears
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.055
  • 41.0%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -1.80CPOE-0.14
  • 37.3%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.62
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. CHI are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16BUF @ CHI35–13BUF
2018 · W9CHI @ BUF41–9CHI
2010 · W9CHI @ BUF22–19CHI
2006 · W5BUF @ CHI7–40CHI
2002 · W4CHI @ BUF27–33BUF
2000 · W11CHI @ BUF3–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CHI
BUFQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:30466Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 11:35971Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 6:52622Punt7–7
BUFQ1 3:47636Punt7–7
CHIQ2 14:52753Turnover7–7
BUFQ2 11:30514Field goal10–7
CHIQ2 8:07533Turnover16–7
BUFQ2 5:3617Touchdown17–7
CHIQ2 5:30716Punt17–7
BUFQ2 1:49454Punt17–7
CHIQ2 0:3614End of half17–7
CHIQ3 15:001152Field goal17–10
BUFQ3 9:34628Turnover17–10
CHIQ3 6:53545Touchdown17–17
BUFQ3 4:23519Punt17–17
CHIQ3 0:55517Punt17–17
BUFQ4 13:1937Punt17–17
CHIQ4 11:40842Turnover17–17
BUFQ4 7:52847Field goal20–17
CHIQ4 4:021161Field goal20–20
BUFQ4 0:3000End of half20–20
CHIOT416Punt20–20
BUFOT577Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel16/2217311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson7618.70
Anthony Dixon56012.00
C.J. Spiller15533.50
EJ Manuel6193.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods46780
Mike Williams23360
Sammy Watkins34310
Fred Jackson33130
C.J. Spiller33111
Scott Chandler0100
Marquise Goodwin0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler34/4934922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17824.80
Ka'Deem Carey144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte89870
Brandon Marshall812711
Alshon Jeffery56710
Martellus Bennett810701
Santonio Holmes25210
Dante Rosario11120
Josh Morgan1390
Micheal Spurlock1380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.67
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.50