2022 · Week 16

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

35·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 7°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BUF -8

Total

40

Model margin

-4.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBears
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.039
  • 49.0%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.004
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.35CPOE-4.05
  • 51.1%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
  • 2.48Points / drive1.78
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. CHI are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W9CHI @ BUF41–9CHI
2014 · W1BUF @ CHI23–20BUF
2010 · W9CHI @ BUF22–19CHI
2006 · W5BUF @ CHI7–40CHI
2002 · W4CHI @ BUF27–33BUF
2000 · W11CHI @ BUF3–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00974Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 9:41886Touchdown6–7
CHIQ1 6:22725Turnover on downs6–7
BUFQ1 2:44848Turnover6–7
CHIQ2 12:53510Punt6–7
BUFQ2 10:1033Punt6–7
CHIQ2 7:53813Field goal6–10
BUFQ2 3:21746Missed field goal6–10
CHIQ2 0:512-1End of half6–10
BUFQ3 15:00886Touchdown14–10
CHIQ3 10:5153Turnover14–10
BUFQ3 8:44435Touchdown21–10
CHIQ3 7:5735Punt21–10
BUFQ3 6:31413Punt21–10
CHIQ3 4:2332Punt21–10
BUFQ3 2:37429Turnover21–10
CHIQ3 0:24553Turnover on downs21–10
BUFQ4 12:5923Turnover21–10
CHIQ4 12:1331Field goal21–13
BUFQ4 10:1931Punt21–13
CHIQ4 9:1333Punt21–13
BUFQ4 7:21856Touchdown28–13
CHIQ4 3:454-4Turnover on downs28–13
BUFQ4 2:08420Touchdown35–13
CHIQ4 1:02425Turnover35–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen15/2617222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary121068.81
James Cook11999.01
Josh Allen6416.81
Isaiah McKenzie166.00
Nyheim Hines122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gabe Davis36451
Dawson Knox35381
Stefon Diggs22260
Devin Singletary23190
Reggie Gilliam11120
Cole Beasley1190
Nyheim Hines1290
James Cook1290
Khalil Shakir1150
Isaiah McKenzie0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields15/2311910
Nathan Peterman3/52501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery16623.90
Justin Fields7111.60
Khalil Herbert671.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Velus Jones Jr.24520
Byron Pringle22340
Cole Kmet56270
David Montgomery44220
Dante Pettis25111
Ryan Griffin1120
Khalil Herbert23-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -82.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.6%3.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-4.15