Closing spread
BUF -8
Total
40
Model margin
-4.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.039
- 49.0%Success rate41.1%
- +0.203EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.004
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.35CPOE-4.05
- 51.1%Third-down rate41.0%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
- 2.48Points / drive1.78
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. CHI are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/26 | 172 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 12 | 106 | 8.8 | 1 |
| James Cook | 11 | 99 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15/23 | 119 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 3/5 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velus Jones Jr. | 2 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-4.15