2018 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

41·9

Bills

Buffalo

QB Nathan Peterman

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 49°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CHI -10.5

Total

38

Model margin

-1.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBills
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.140
  • 46.3%Success rate37.8%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.143
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +2.41CPOE-7.12
  • 41.4%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 67.8%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 1.96Points / drive1.26
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. BUF are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16BUF @ CHI35–13BUF
2014 · W1BUF @ CHI23–20BUF
2010 · W9CHI @ BUF22–19CHI
2006 · W5BUF @ CHI7–40CHI
2002 · W4CHI @ BUF27–33BUF
2000 · W11CHI @ BUF3–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–BUF
CHIQ1 15:00834Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:04620Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:25644Punt0–0
BUFQ1 2:303-2Punt0–0
CHIQ1 0:56842Touchdown7–0
BUFQ2 13:04630Punt7–0
CHIQ2 10:4434Punt7–0
BUFQ2 9:07414Opp touchdown14–0
BUFQ2 7:072-1Turnover14–0
CHIQ2 6:21412Punt14–0
BUFQ2 4:5937Opp touchdown21–0
BUFQ2 3:3256Punt21–0
CHIQ2 1:23223Touchdown28–0
BUFQ2 0:44842End of half28–0
BUFQ3 15:001147Field goal28–3
CHIQ3 11:01523Field goal31–3
BUFQ3 8:1333Punt31–3
CHIQ3 6:5410Turnover31–3
BUFQ3 6:40811Turnover on downs31–3
CHIQ3 2:2433Punt31–3
BUFQ3 0:1720Field goal31–3
CHIQ4 15:0031Field goal34–3
BUFQ4 13:331863Touchdown34–9
CHIQ4 5:4157Touchdown41–9
BUFQ4 4:361124Turnover on downs41–9
CHIQ4 1:5500End of half41–9

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky12/2013511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard14473.42
Anthony Miller199.00
Mitchell Trubisky166.00
Tarik Cohen650.80
Chase Daniel3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Miller56490
Taylor Gabriel35450
Trey Burton23281
Tarik Cohen1280
Taquan Mizzell1250
Josh Bellamy0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nathan Peterman31/4918803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nathan Peterman8475.91
Chris Ivory7365.10
LeSean McCoy10101.00
Marcus Murphy166.00
Zay Jones100.00
Terrelle Pryor1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Logan Thomas78400
Kelvin Benjamin49400
Jason Croom35360
LeSean McCoy44190
Chris Ivory34190
Zay Jones46180
Terrelle Pryor25170
Andre Holmes1160
Ray-Ray McCloud0100
Marcus Murphy34-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.0%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.18
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.90