Closing spread
CHI -10.5
Total
38
Model margin
-1.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.140
- 46.3%Success rate37.8%
- +0.147EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.143
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.41CPOE-7.12
- 41.4%Third-down rate32.3%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.96Points / drive1.26
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. BUF are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 12/20 | 135 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Miller | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Peterman | 31/49 | 188 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Peterman | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 10 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 7 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 3 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.18
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.90