Closing spread
NYG -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.112
- 44.3%Success rate42.3%
- +0.081EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.121
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.60CPOE-2.30
- 37.0%Third-down rate34.1%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.81Points / drive1.25
- 4.0%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 22/37 | 187 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 14 | 116 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 11 | 103 | 9.4 | 1 |
| D.J. Ware | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 7 | 9 | 96 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 4 | 9 | 23 | 1 |
| Bear Pascoe | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 15/30 | 118 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Webb | 2/5 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 5 | 12 | 60 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 5 | 10 | 30 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.33