2010 · Week 14

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

21·3

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Tarvaris Jackson

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NYG -4.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapVikings
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.112
  • 44.3%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.121
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.60CPOE-2.30
  • 37.0%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.25
  • 4.0%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–MIN
MINQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:53410Turnover0–0
MINQ1 10:00931Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 5:25518Punt0–3
MINQ1 3:38415Punt0–3
NYGQ1 1:45531Turnover0–3
MINQ2 14:50622Punt0–3
NYGQ2 11:56689Touchdown7–3
MINQ2 8:113-1Punt7–3
NYGQ2 6:0034Punt7–3
MINQ2 3:32411Punt7–3
NYGQ2 1:43859Touchdown14–3
MINQ2 0:0300End of half14–3
NYGQ3 15:00613Punt14–3
MINQ3 11:3520Turnover14–3
NYGQ3 11:2535Punt14–3
MINQ3 9:503-1Punt14–3
NYGQ3 8:14412Punt14–3
MINQ3 5:1838Punt14–3
NYGQ3 3:46359Touchdown21–3
MINQ3 2:46611Punt21–3
NYGQ3 0:07522Punt21–3
MINQ4 12:4746Punt21–3
NYGQ4 10:58529Punt21–3
MINQ4 7:4933Punt21–3
NYGQ4 6:37944Turnover on downs21–3
MINQ4 1:481243End of half21–3

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning22/3718712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs141168.31
Ahmad Bradshaw111039.41
D.J. Ware3-6-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks79960
Kevin Boss49231
Bear Pascoe22210
D.J. Ware11120
Steve Smith13120
Ahmad Bradshaw56120
Derek Hagan13100
Mario Manningham1310

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson15/3011801
Joe Webb2/5800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson14261.90
Joe Webb11616.00
Toby Gerhart3113.70
Tarvaris Jackson482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice512600
Bernard Berrian510300
Greg Lewis23130
Visanthe Shiancoe1470
Jimmy Kleinsasser1160
Lorenzo Booker1160
Greg Camarillo1230
Toby Gerhart1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.33