Closing spread
GB -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.076
- 40.3%Success rate45.9%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.44CPOE+5.31
- 44.1%Third-down rate41.3%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.89Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25/40 | 263 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 9 | 16 | 89 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 7 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/39 | 304 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 9 | 15 | 140 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 7 | 64 | 2 |
| James Jones | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Korey Hall | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.98