2010 · SB

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

25·31

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Cowboys Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPackers
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.076
  • 40.3%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.44CPOE+5.31
  • 44.1%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.91
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8GB @ PIT35–25GB
2023 · W10GB @ PIT19–23PIT
2021 · W4PIT @ GB17–27GB
2017 · W12GB @ PIT28–31PIT
2013 · W16PIT @ GB38–31PIT
2009 · W15GB @ PIT36–37PIT
2005 · W9PIT @ GB20–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–GB
PITQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:13628Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:05429Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:17980Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 3:4410Opp touchdown0–14
PITQ1 3:201259Field goal3–14
GBQ2 11:0839Punt3–14
PITQ2 9:28839Turnover3–14
GBQ2 4:28453Touchdown3–21
PITQ2 2:24777Touchdown10–21
GBQ2 0:3914End of half10–21
GBQ3 15:00420Punt10–21
PITQ3 12:39550Touchdown17–21
GBQ3 10:193-3Punt17–21
PITQ3 9:00826Missed field goal17–21
GBQ3 4:29419Punt17–21
PITQ3 2:2338Punt17–21
GBQ3 0:4730Punt17–21
PITQ3 0:1123Turnover17–21
GBQ4 14:50855Touchdown17–28
PITQ4 11:57876Touchdown25–28
GBQ4 7:34975Field goal25–31
PITQ4 2:07520Turnover on downs25–31
GBQ4 0:4900End of half25–31

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger25/4026322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall14634.51
Ben Roethlisberger4317.80
Isaac Redman2199.50
Mewelde Moore3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace916891
Hines Ward79781
Antwaan Randle El22500
Emmanuel Sanders23170
Heath Miller24120
Matt Spaeth1190
Rashard Mendenhall1170
Antonio Brown1310

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3930430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks11524.70
Aaron Rodgers2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson9151401
Greg Jennings47642
James Jones56500
Donald Driver22280
Brandon Jackson12140
Andrew Quarless1250
Korey Hall1120
Tom Crabtree1110
Brett Swain0200
James Starks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.98