2017 · Week 12

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Hundley

28·31

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -14

Total

43

Model margin

+5.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSteelers
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.076
  • 45.2%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.085
  • 6.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.27CPOE+3.69
  • 39.5%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.22
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. PIT are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8GB @ PIT35–25GB
2023 · W10GB @ PIT19–23PIT
2021 · W4PIT @ GB17–27GB
2013 · W16PIT @ GB38–31PIT
2010 · playoffsPIT @ GB25–31GB
2009 · W15GB @ PIT36–37PIT
2005 · W9PIT @ GB20–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–PIT
PITQ1 15:001264Touchdown0–6
GBQ1 8:14755Touchdown7–6
PITQ1 4:45724Turnover7–6
GBQ1 2:12355Touchdown14–6
PITQ1 1:22838Punt14–6
GBQ2 11:5635Punt14–6
PITQ2 10:11565Touchdown14–14
GBQ2 7:20619Punt14–14
PITQ2 3:35734Punt14–14
GBQ2 1:06319End of half14–14
GBQ3 15:00676Touchdown21–14
PITQ3 12:06834Turnover21–14
GBQ3 7:4266Missed field goal21–14
PITQ3 4:15751Touchdown21–21
GBQ3 0:503-6Punt21–21
PITQ4 14:53320Turnover21–21
GBQ4 13:2430Punt21–21
PITQ4 12:56768Touchdown21–28
GBQ4 8:421277Touchdown28–28
PITQ4 2:02629Punt28–28
GBQ4 1:2031Punt28–28
PITQ4 0:17335Field goal28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Hundley17/2624530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams21663.11
Brett Hundley166.00
Trevor Davis144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams58821
Jamaal Williams45691
Randall Cobb44581
Richard Rodgers13250
Jordy Nelson35110

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger33/4535142

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell20954.80
Ben Roethlisberger3258.30
Martavis Bryant111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown10121692
Le'Veon Bell1214880
Martavis Bryant46401
Jesse James34320
Eli Rogers37210
Xavier Grimble1111
Justin Hunter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.26