Closing spread
PIT -14
Total
43
Model margin
+5.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.076
- 45.2%Success rate46.0%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.085
- 6.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.27CPOE+3.69
- 39.5%Third-down rate43.8%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.77Points / drive2.22
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. PIT are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 17/26 | 245 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 21 | 66 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Brett Hundley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 4 | 58 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 33/45 | 351 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 12 | 169 | 2 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 12 | 14 | 88 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 4 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.26